RE: https://bsky.app/profile/mims.bsky.social/post/3mnpr3oso5k2k
Their points:
1. There's a huge bubble and the crash will be bad -> Absolutely and I can't wait
2. A majority of the tasks we've been promised that AI will take over, it won't -> Obviously
3. AI will completely transform coding
Let's unpack that.
So the TL;DR of my opinion is that it won't at all due to costs and subtle bugs.
I have observed that the shift to token-based billing seems to be resulting in massive cost spikes for the users of the various AI providers. I don't think they're all switched over yet, but this seems to be the path forwards. This is going to make costs skyrocket over time as this is the simplest way for the providers to nickle-and-dime their users. The analysis I've read says that the entire space is massively underpriced to the point where Google's massive rollout of Gemini to every corner of it's ecosystem seems "weird" when other providers are rolling back their offerings. isaiprofitable.com says that everyone is massively in debt, so squeezing every cent they can out of everyone seems to be the only path forwards.
If I can hire a decent software developer with minor language barrier problems from some country and they start with decent but general software engineering skills, but over time will learn our stack well, I don't see the point in paying for some AI system that doesn't have the software engineering skills and arguably doesn't learn and costs nearly as much.
So let's talk subtle bugs.
Atlassian goes AI -> Jira and Confluence are now glitchy messes and have shipped some seriously questionable updates
Microsoft goes AI -> Windows gets glitchier and has shipped updates that literally bricked hardware
Slack goes AI -> starts getting glitchy
Notion goes AI -> starts getting glitchy
rsync goes AI -> ships security updates that break workflows that have worked fine for a long time
I would no-longer recommend any of these apps. Not because they've gone AI, but because they no-longer have the thing that made them worth the pain.
Jira has always been painful and buggy to work with, but the core ticket management stuff was always rock solid.
Confluence has always been a bit naf, but the core documentation side was always rock solid.
Windows was the default OS choice because it was solid and had endless backwards compatibility despite Microsoft's questionable decisions
Slack is the default workplace comms app because the messaging part of it was rock solid.
Notion was a cute and quirky, but solid note/text management app because the text management was rock solid.
rsync is the default CLI file transfer app because it's literally everywhere and was rock solid.
But companies choosing AI over engineering took all of that from us.
So yeah, it is transforming coding, by introducing subtle bugs on subtle bugs and undermining the foundations of the pillars of modern businesses.
#tech #ai #hottake