Space Weather Ops

Another update today for the Space Weather Ops dashboard.

A couple of important changes:

The path estimator matrix has been overhauled to reduce the amount of chaotic flashing. Please check the colour key at the bottom of the panel for the changed indicator states.

The second major change is removal of the Kiruna magnetometer plot which was difficult to read. It's been replaced by a multi-channel bar graph which is intended to show a number of magnetometers across various longitudes, and therefore track the state of substorms.

The left part of the plot shows seven magnetometers in Alaska. The right side should show five in Europe, but only Kiruna data can be plotted in real-time from a direct feed, and the other four, which are supposed to be served by the USGS, are not showing any data. Should they appear, the plots should light up. Access to live magnetometer feeds in Europe is not easy so apologies for this.

As conditions change, an indicator on the top bar will show substorm progress. Click on the bar graphs to open a more detailed pop up page.

There are also a number of bug-fixes mainly to do with the cadence of alerts and announcements.

#spaceweather
#amateurradio
#g7izu

Radio Propagation

Strong Sporadic-E conditions over Europe now.

Orange=50 MHz
Hot Pink=FM Band 2
Red=144 MHz

#radiopropagation
#amateurradio
#g7izu

Radio Propagation

Northern hemisphere sporadic-E propagation is looking good again today. High MUF near Scandinavia is producing some good FM Es propagation around Europe.

Orange=50 MHz
Hot pink=FM band 2
Red=144 MHz

#radiopropagation
#ameteurradio
#g7izu

Radio Propagation

A strong trans-Atlantic and N Hemisphere sporadic-E opening is in progress.

Orange=50 MHz
Hot pink=FM Band 2
10 minute cadence

#sporadic_e
#radiopropagation
#amateurradio
#g7izu

Space Weather

CME WATCH RESTARTED:

Proton levels as measured by the EPAM instrument on ACE at L1 are rising quickly.

This is a sure sign that the CME hasn't missed us entirely and that we will be catching the westward leg of it very soon.

If you imagine the shape of a croissant, the thinning "legs" extend all the way back to the sun to the east and west, whilst the fat core heads far away from the sun.

We can expect a long period of storming with fairly chaotic Bz values whilst the structure passes through.

#spaceweather
#aurora
#radiopropagation
#amateurradio
#g7izu

Space Weather

CME update

Maybe it took a turn along the way. Anyway, no sign of any CME yet.

And no, I don't know if or when it will be here...

#spaceweather
#is_it_here_yet?
#g7izu

Space Weather

CME Watch: We're waiting for the first signs of the CME arrival. As of 10h30 UT we don't see much going on, but stay tuned as I'll be very quick to let you know of it's arrival.

No major changes in the prediction - G3-G4 is possible, but not guaranteed. We're unlikely to see the core of the CME as it's somewhat offset to the south-east, but the effects of a following coronal hole may just push it further west, causing it to have more effect on us. We're likely to see "flux rope" conditions from the edge of the storm, which tend to be very turbulent.

If the storm arrives earlier it will be stronger than if it arrives later. A second eruption from a neighbouring active region may slightly complicate the structure of the CME, so we don't really know how the next few hours will play out.

Stay tuned, or better still monitor my Space Weather Dashboard. It'll be interesting if nothing else!

https://www.tvcomm.co.uk/g7izu/space-weather-ops/

#spaceweather
#radiopropagation
#amateurradio
#aurora
#g7izu

Space Weather

CME update

Latest analysis suggests the CME is slower than first suggested by models, and impact maybe after 12h UT on the 8th (but no guarantees!)

The chance of visible aurora in Europe in the evening is increasing!

#spaceweather
#radiopropagation
#amateurradio
#aurora
#g7izu