anlomedadInteresting fear-porn fail. 😁
Just saw it on bluesk. Don't know who made it originally.
It shows 400 thousand years of CO2 concentration and global mean temperature anomaly.
And it claims that, following the #paleoclimate examples, +10°C would be the ultimate outcome of today's CO2 concentration.
But that's not true. <no scientist>
a) not true because the rise in CO2 and temperature in the chart always follows a certain pattern in the Milankovic cycles, the 3 ways of how the Earth wobbles around the sun.
We're not in a cycle pattern that allowed the rise to, for example, the peak 126 thousand years ago. We are in fact in a cycle pattern that dances stepwise down into an ice age.
Temperature rise to past warm phases always occurred when ( the big, fast-heating landmasses on ) the Northern Hemisphere summer starts getting more solar energy. And temperatures always begin to drop back down once (the huge oceans on) the Southern Hemisphere summers begin to get more solar energy.
6000 years ago, the Southern Hemisphere summers started to get more solar input. And all things being equal, the global cooling could have been palpable by now.
So that's reason number 1 why the claim is not true.
More importantly
b) it's not true because CO2 warms immediately. Like BOOM. No lag. Just BOOM.
(Okay, okay, a 10 year lag, tbh.) Nothing in the pipeline that could allow +10°C. What you see is what you get. bring your own CO2 if you want 10°C more, giggles.
Last but not least,
c) it's not true because the heat is sucked up by the oceans. So we do not see surface air temperature rising according to the warming by the GHG concentration.
The more warming is created, the more the oceans do suck up and hide it in deep waters (where it creates other problems but nothing like the claimed 10°C).
During the last 4 big Milankovic cycles in the image, the oceans did their hiding too. They just didn't have to suck up as much heat because i) the warm phase never lasted that long and ii) because CO2 and CH4 didn't rise beyond 280ppm and 760ppb.
I think, one of the reasons for why the stepwise down dance toward rock bottom always takes 100 thousand years: the oceans very slowly release the heat to balance the cooling surface air; and this heat release stutters every time when the Milankovic patterns create a short warming interlude during the overall cooling-down phase.
This time round, the oceans hide lots more heat – because we create more, and because the Holocene is lasting so long. But we will not see a surface air temperature evolve like during the paleoclimate cycles at all. No "6 to 9°C in the pipeline" 🖖🏽
Joshua Brown or "WUi"
Alu
Aurelius_17_6_313 aka Sir 1%
Andy Valencia ✅
Orange Cowboy 