Doc Edward Morbius ⭕COVID-19: What is Turkey’s true case count?
Turkey revised its reporting criteria on November 25 to include asymptomatic cases, increasing its daily reported cases by a factor of 3.6 overnight. With cases now averaging 32,000/day and rising, the country is three days from crossing the million-case threshold, officially.
But we know that this is a spectacular undercount.
Turkey currently reports 925,342 COVID-19 cases (16th overall by country) where the actual reported value based on curent reporting criteria should be 2.1 million cases (6th overall), and the underlying incidence of all infections is likely 3.5–5 million.
Maths & data at link:
https://joindiaspora.com/posts/5abf74601ca501392925002590d8e506
COVID-19: What is Turkey's true case count?
COVID-19: What is Turkey's true case count? As noted 8 days ago, Turkey (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/turkey) had revised its COVID-19 reporting criteria on November 25 (/posts/562c716016700139163b002590d8e506) to include asymptomatic cases, increasing its daily reported cases by a factor of 3.6 literally overnight. With cases now averaging 32,000/day and rising, and 925,000 officially reported cases (ranked 16th overall, behind Peru) the country is three days from crossing the million-case threshold, officially. But we know that this is a spectacular undercount. The question arises, what is the likely actual number of cases? I'll argue that this is 2.1 million (6th ranked) with a true ncidence of at least 3.5 million, possibly as high as 5 million, based on prior undercounts and observed mortality. Data are all based on Worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) unless otherwise noted. Underreported diagnoses We can look at the change in repor...