A +50% model upside prediction often gets clicks, but a +5% prediction can be far more valuable. Why?
Confidence.
A high-confidence, well-calibrated signal, even for a smaller move, provides a stronger basis for research than a low-confidence moonshot. The latter is often just noise. Our work focuses heavily on calibrating our models' confidence scores, not just chasing headline numbers. The real research challenge isn't the magnitude, but the model's certainty.







