#statstab #505 Beyond Confounders

Thoughts: What makes a good control and a bad control?

#counterfactuals #confounder #DAG #r #modelling #selectionbias #variance #control #causalinference

https://matheusfacure.github.io/python-causality-handbook/07-Beyond-Confounders.html

"Mediators, confounders, colliders – a crash course in causal inference"
by Florian Hartig (2019): https://theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/2019/04/14/mediators-confounders-colliders-a-crash-course-in-causal-inference/

#offPolicy #causality #causalInference #stats #statistics #counterFactuals #probabilities #ML #ecology #confounding

#statstab #485 Bayesian ANCOVA and the ATE

Thoughts: Still grappling with the implications of using the causal inference approach to randomized experiments. But it's interesting.

#ATE #causalinference #ancova #ANOVA #rstats #estimand #counterfactuals

https://solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07-20-within-person-factorial-experiments-log-normal-reaction-time-data/

Molinism

This is named after the 16th century Spanish Jesuit theologian Luis de Molina. It’s the thesis that God has middle knowledge, or scientia Media: the knowledge of counterfactuals, particularly counterfactuals regarding human action. It looks to reconcile the apparent tension of Divine Providence & human free will.

Molinists, following Luis de Molina’s example, present God’s knowledge in a sequence of 3 logical moments. The 1st of God’s knowledge of necessary truths or natural Knowledge. The truths are independent of God’s will & are non-contingent. This knowledge includes the full range of logical possibilities.

The 2nd is God’s free Knowledge. This type of knowledge consists of contingent truths that are dependent on God’s will, or truths, that God brings about. Free Knowledge encompasses the future of what will happen.

In between God’s natural & free knowledge is His “middle knowledge” that contains the range of possible things that would happen given certain circumstances, by which God knows what His free creatures would do in any situation. These truths that don’t have to be true. But are true without God being the primary course of them.

Molinists use Matthew 11:23 to scripturally support their case. They claim that in this example, God knows what His free creatures would choose under hypothetical would choose under hypothetical circumstances. Namely that the Sodomites would’ve responded to Jesus’ miracles still have been in existence in Jesus’ day, given that hypothetical situation.

Matthew 11:23 has what’s commonly called a counterfactual of creaturely Freedom. However, counterfactuals are to be distinguished from foreknowledge. Middle knowledge is to be distinguished from God’s knowledge of counterfactuals.

Molinists say the logical ordering of events for creation would be as follows: 1) God’s natural knowledge of necessary truths. 2) God’s middle knowledge, including counterfactuals. Then the Creation of the World. 3) God’s free knowledge, the actual ontology of the world.

Ontology is a branch of metaphysics dealing with the nature of being. The placing of God’s middle knowledge between God’s knowledge of necessary truths & God’s creative decree is crucial.

Make a one-time donation

Make a monthly donation

Make a yearly donation

Choose an amount

Or enter a custom amount

Your contribution is appreciated.

Your contribution is appreciated.

Your contribution is appreciated.

DonateDonate monthlyDonate yearly

#16thCentury #Counterfactuals #CreaturelyFreedom #DivineProvidence #Foreknowledge #FreeKnowledge #FreeWill #Jesuit #Jesus #LuisDeMolina #Matthew1123 #MiddleKnowledge #Molinism #NaturalKnowledge #Ontology #ScientiaMedia #Sodom #Sodomites #Spanish

Willow Starr ja Alex Kocurek ovat päivittäneet SEP-entryään kontrafaktuaaleista,

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/counterfactuals/

Käypiä välineitä jossittelun semantiikan analyysiin ja systematisointiin.

#kontrafaktuaali #counterfactuals #semantics #semantiika #logiikka #logic #filosofia #philosophy #causality #jossittelu #whatIf #konditionaali #conditionals #science #explanation #epistemology #metaphysics #kuvittelu #imagination #mind #modality #freeWill #possibleWorlds #sep #revised #linguistics #history #ai

I thoroughly enjoyed this two-part episode of #TheRestIsHistory in which Tom and Dom talk with Dan Carlin - an American historian - about "History's Greatest Questions." It's entertaining and informative.

#History #Counterfactuals

https://youtu.be/ylsWR-AXJlM?si=zkAvgLxd0FiNjE3c

#statstab #323 Counterfactuals and G-Computation

Thoughts: Even {emmeans} can do funky stuff for observational studies, if that is your fancy.

#gcomputation #counterfactuals #observational #R #emmeans #design

https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/emmeans/vignettes/messy-data.html#counterfact

#WilliamDembski - #FineTuning in the #Universe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4o_aUHoaPs

#Philosophy #Metaphysics #Counterfactual #Counterfactuals #Multiverse #Probability #PhilosophyOfScience #Science #Cosmology #PhilosophyOfCosmology #Design #IntelligentDesign #CreationTheory #God #CloserToTruth #RobertKuhn

'Transport-based Counterfactual Models', by Lucas De Lara, Alberto González-Sanz, Nicholas Asher, Laurent Risser, Jean-Michel Loubes.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v25/21-1440.html

#counterfactuals #counterfactual #fairness