My counterrfactual history, "The Lost Canal of Vlinius" is up on both my site—https://varnelis.net/works_and_projects/the-lost-canals-of-vilnius/ and on my substack https://varnelis.substack.com/

#counterfactual #aiart

I'm reading "The Challenge of the Computer Utility" by D.F. Parkhill, 1966, which was referenced in "Project Whirlwind: The History of a Pioneer Computer" by Kent C. Redmond and Thomas M. Smith, 1980.

It's a book which attempts to "...facilitate [the] growing discussion [of computer utilities] by providing a broad examination that will reveal something of the history, technology, and economics of the computer utility and explore some of its possible implications for our society." In modern terms, it's an attempt to describe what became networked and cloud computing.

There's a wonderful digression imagining an alternative history for computing if Babbage had succeeded in building the Analytical Engine. Here is that section in full:

It is fascinating to speculate how the course of human affairs might have been changed if Babbage or his son had actually succeeded in completing a working analytical engine. Admittedly, given the primitive state of precision mechanical technology before the twentieth century, it is doubtful that even a working machine would have inspired many attempts at direct duplication. On the other hand, the electrical relay in the form of the Morse telegraph was in general use before Babbage’s death, and there is no reason why large electromechanical analytical engines based on relays could not have been built by the end of the nineteenth century. Primitive as such computers would have been by our standards, they still would have represented an astronomical addition to the scientific resources of their time. Furthermore, in the familiar bootstrap action that has played such an important role in our own scientific progress since World War II, successful analytical engines would have spawned further improvements in themselves.

In electronics, for example, it is possible that the vacuum tube might have found its first large-scale application as a switching device in computers rather than as an amplifier or detector in communications systems. This in turn would have opened up computational and control horizons before World War I that in reality did not appear until the 1950’s. If this had happened, would automation and its first offspring, technological unemployment, then have added their fuel to the fires of economic collapse in the 1930’s? How much faster would aviation have developed? Possibly the jet engine, the guided missile, and the supersonic aircraft would have been commonplace long before the beginning of World War II. What about the atomic bomb? At this point the mind boggles, for the thought of Fascism, in all its hideousness, armed with nuclear weapons, is enough to shatter the complacency of even the most optimistic believer in human progress.

On the other hand, there was nothing inevitable about the political and economic events that have hitherto convulsed the twentieth century. In fact, given the more rapid rate of scientific and economic progress that would have followed an earlier introduction of the computer, it is extremely unlikely that the pace of political change would have remained unaffected.

The book: https://archive.org/details/challengeofcompu0000park

#computerhistory #counterfactual #alternativehistory #retrocomputing #vintagecomputing

#WilliamDembski - #FineTuning in the #Universe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4o_aUHoaPs

#Philosophy #Metaphysics #Counterfactual #Counterfactuals #Multiverse #Probability #PhilosophyOfScience #Science #Cosmology #PhilosophyOfCosmology #Design #IntelligentDesign #CreationTheory #God #CloserToTruth #RobertKuhn

Now imagine if, in 622 CE, the Quraysh had managed to kill Muhammad, instead of only expelling him. We would be speaking of him as a sweet, peaceful guy martyred for his beliefs. The fact is, we have no access to the counterfactual in which Jesus had to do an actual governance in the actual world.

#Jesus #Muhammad #peace #counterfactual #meekAndMild

This month's post is about the hypothetical. Counterfactuals help us understand the world we live in by highlighting what could have gone differently and why. They also allow us to explore potential futures. For example, by examining a past catastrophe, we can ask: "What would have made this worse?" This allows us to better prepare for future challenges. 🌍🔍📖 https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/counterfactual-catastrophes

#counterfactual #LivingLiteratureReview #future #foresight #forecasting #storylines #ClimatCchange

#Pelosi says #Biden should've quit race sooner

Oops! Is that another hole in the Biden hagiography?

Or is that unprovable #counterFactual that Biden quitting sooner would have prevented a #Trump victory?

https://www.salon.com/2024/11/08/pelosi-says-biden-shouldve-quit-race-sooner-allowed-an-open-primary-to-challenge/

'Transport-based Counterfactual Models', by Lucas De Lara, Alberto González-Sanz, Nicholas Asher, Laurent Risser, Jean-Michel Loubes.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v25/21-1440.html

#counterfactuals #counterfactual #fairness