“Counterfactual reasoning, which deals with what-ifs, might strike some readers as unscientific. Indeed, empirical observation can never confirm or refute the answers to such questions.”*..

… still, we ask of our history, our reality “what if?”… The estimable Colin McGinn ponders why…

In a world with less gravity, the birds would be huge. In a world with more gravity, only insects would fly. In a world with more light and plant predators, plants would have consciousness and advanced intelligence. In a world with greater water resistance, whales would be small. In a colder world, there would be no cold-blooded animals. In a hotter world, all animals would be cold-blooded. In a wetter world, we would have gills. In a drier world, life would begin on the land, if it begins at all. In a world without tool-forming materials, we would still be walking on four legs. In a world with only predators, there would be no life. In a world without predators, life would be simple and boring. In a world without a sun, life would be primitive, unless there was another power source. In a world with available nuclear power, life would be much more abundant than now. In a world without consciousness, there would be no war. In a world without emotion, there would be no suicide. In a world with no psychology, there would be no madness. In a world without motion, there world be no progress and no death. In a world without causation, there would be only chaos. In a world without necessity, there would be only randomness. In a world without events, everything would be eternal. In a world without the infinite, there would be no finite. In a world without relations, there would be no facts. In a world without facts, there would be nothing. In a world without reality, there would be no unreality. In a world without nothingness, there would be no being.

Counterfactuals are inherently surprising, which is why we are fascinated by them. They tell us how different things could be under small changes. There are many kinds of counterfactual. We live in their shadow. They are always controversial, sometimes paradoxical. They give us a sense of intellectual freedom. They scare us. They are also funny. We wouldn’t know what to do without them. In a world without counterfactuals, there would be no thought worthy of the name…

On the utility– the necessity– of contemplating the unreal: “Counterfactuals.”

See also: “What is counterfactual thinking and why should you care about it?” (source of the image above)

* Judea Pearl

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As we analyze alternatives, we might recall that it was on this date in 1898 that chemist Morris Travers discovered Krypton– the element (Kr), not the counterfactual planet.

source

My counterrfactual history, "The Lost Canal of Vlinius" is up on both my site—https://varnelis.net/works_and_projects/the-lost-canals-of-vilnius/ and on my substack https://varnelis.substack.com/

#counterfactual #aiart

I'm reading "The Challenge of the Computer Utility" by D.F. Parkhill, 1966, which was referenced in "Project Whirlwind: The History of a Pioneer Computer" by Kent C. Redmond and Thomas M. Smith, 1980.

It's a book which attempts to "...facilitate [the] growing discussion [of computer utilities] by providing a broad examination that will reveal something of the history, technology, and economics of the computer utility and explore some of its possible implications for our society." In modern terms, it's an attempt to describe what became networked and cloud computing.

There's a wonderful digression imagining an alternative history for computing if Babbage had succeeded in building the Analytical Engine. Here is that section in full:

It is fascinating to speculate how the course of human affairs might have been changed if Babbage or his son had actually succeeded in completing a working analytical engine. Admittedly, given the primitive state of precision mechanical technology before the twentieth century, it is doubtful that even a working machine would have inspired many attempts at direct duplication. On the other hand, the electrical relay in the form of the Morse telegraph was in general use before Babbage’s death, and there is no reason why large electromechanical analytical engines based on relays could not have been built by the end of the nineteenth century. Primitive as such computers would have been by our standards, they still would have represented an astronomical addition to the scientific resources of their time. Furthermore, in the familiar bootstrap action that has played such an important role in our own scientific progress since World War II, successful analytical engines would have spawned further improvements in themselves.

In electronics, for example, it is possible that the vacuum tube might have found its first large-scale application as a switching device in computers rather than as an amplifier or detector in communications systems. This in turn would have opened up computational and control horizons before World War I that in reality did not appear until the 1950’s. If this had happened, would automation and its first offspring, technological unemployment, then have added their fuel to the fires of economic collapse in the 1930’s? How much faster would aviation have developed? Possibly the jet engine, the guided missile, and the supersonic aircraft would have been commonplace long before the beginning of World War II. What about the atomic bomb? At this point the mind boggles, for the thought of Fascism, in all its hideousness, armed with nuclear weapons, is enough to shatter the complacency of even the most optimistic believer in human progress.

On the other hand, there was nothing inevitable about the political and economic events that have hitherto convulsed the twentieth century. In fact, given the more rapid rate of scientific and economic progress that would have followed an earlier introduction of the computer, it is extremely unlikely that the pace of political change would have remained unaffected.

The book: https://archive.org/details/challengeofcompu0000park

#computerhistory #counterfactual #alternativehistory #retrocomputing #vintagecomputing

#WilliamDembski - #FineTuning in the #Universe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4o_aUHoaPs

#Philosophy #Metaphysics #Counterfactual #Counterfactuals #Multiverse #Probability #PhilosophyOfScience #Science #Cosmology #PhilosophyOfCosmology #Design #IntelligentDesign #CreationTheory #God #CloserToTruth #RobertKuhn

Now imagine if, in 622 CE, the Quraysh had managed to kill Muhammad, instead of only expelling him. We would be speaking of him as a sweet, peaceful guy martyred for his beliefs. The fact is, we have no access to the counterfactual in which Jesus had to do an actual governance in the actual world.

#Jesus #Muhammad #peace #counterfactual #meekAndMild

This month's post is about the hypothetical. Counterfactuals help us understand the world we live in by highlighting what could have gone differently and why. They also allow us to explore potential futures. For example, by examining a past catastrophe, we can ask: "What would have made this worse?" This allows us to better prepare for future challenges. 🌍🔍📖 https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/counterfactual-catastrophes

#counterfactual #LivingLiteratureReview #future #foresight #forecasting #storylines #ClimatCchange

#Pelosi says #Biden should've quit race sooner

Oops! Is that another hole in the Biden hagiography?

Or is that unprovable #counterFactual that Biden quitting sooner would have prevented a #Trump victory?

https://www.salon.com/2024/11/08/pelosi-says-biden-shouldve-quit-race-sooner-allowed-an-open-primary-to-challenge/

'Transport-based Counterfactual Models', by Lucas De Lara, Alberto González-Sanz, Nicholas Asher, Laurent Risser, Jean-Michel Loubes.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v25/21-1440.html

#counterfactuals #counterfactual #fairness