Deixis9Jan 6

Inevitably downward? How Elites Could Save Society from Decline

Many people feel the world is broken. Especially in Germany, pessimism is great. How can society be stabilized? Researchers have examined historical examples.

"The irony is that precisely at the moment in which reforms are most urgently needed, those who have the greatest power to implement them are least inclined to implement them," explains co-author Jenny Reddish of the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) in Vienna.

#Cliodynamics

Electronic translation of this ⬇️

https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/kultur/gesellschaft/unausweichlich-abwaerts-wie-eliten-die-gesellschaft-vor-dem-niedergang-retten-koennten-112936795

Unausweichlich abwärts? Wie Eliten die Gesellschaft vor dem Niedergang retten könnten

Viele Menschen empfinden die Welt als zerrüttet. Vor allem in Deutschland ist der Pessimismus groß. Wie kann es gelingen, die Gesellschaft zu stabilisieren? Forschende haben historische Beispiele untersucht.

Augsburger Allgemeine
Show threadBoudFeb 8, 2025

@gombang Betul. So then the question is where the Second Foundation is, given the constant battles of #WMF (the First Foundation) vs Wikipedians. My guess is it's the FOSS/Fedi community - "unknown" to the vast masses.

It turns out that #psychohistory [1] has become a real field of study - #cliodynamics [2] - with researchers acknowledging that peace and armed conflict systems are dynamical systems [3].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_universe#Psychohistory

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/cliodynamics

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/complex_system_approach_to_peace_and_armed_conflict

Foundation universe - Wikipedia

Jonathan SchofieldJul 21, 2024

“In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.”
—Peter Turchin
#cliodynamics

https://mastodon.nu/@Loukas/112823195360446231

Loukas (They/Them) 🏳️‍⚧️ (@[email protected])

I think the Biden/donors conflict is fascinating, not because I think Biden is a radical politician, but because splits in the elite during times of social crisis are significant. The Mexican revolution started as a fight between landowners, and the French nobles' dispute with the king led to the French one. In using these examples I'm exaggerating for effect, but since we all know American democracy is in its worst crisis since the civil war it's not a totally inappropriate exaggeration.

Mastodon.nu
Associated WorldsFeb 26, 2024

Do Not Taunt

https://eldraeverse.com/2024/02/26/do-not-taunt/

#cliodynamics #eldraeverse #ficADay #history #ImperialUniversityOfAlmeä #nondeterminism #teleology #writing

BC Info BotJun 29, 2023
The Tyee: Are These the End Times? Who Will Save Us? https://thetyee.ca/Culture/2023/06/29/These-End-Times-Who-Save-Us/ #bcnews #TheTyee - via @[email protected] #EndTimes:Elites,Counter-ElitesandthePathofPoliticalDisintegration #ComplexityScienceHubVienna #U.S.PresidentDonaldTrump #FranklinDelanoRoosevelt #historianPeterTurchin #popularimmiseration #TheGreatDepression #Americancivilwar #MargaretThatcher #medievalEurope #SecondWorldWar #U.S.democracy #cliodynamics #PenguinPress #RonaldReagan
Are These the End Times? Who Will Save Us? | The Tyee

A new book on the mess we’re in provides an accurate diagnosis of our situation. But its prescriptions for a way out leave much to be desired.

The Tyee
Joel at Seldon CrisisFeb 28, 2023

This article is great. Name checks the #LongNow foundation as well as #cliodynamics (better known to #Asimov #Foundation fans as #psychohistory).

https://www.wired.com/2013/01/forget-big-data-think-long-data/

Stop Hyping Big Data and Start Paying Attention to 'Long Data'

Our species can’t seem to escape big data. We have more data inputs, storage, and computing resources than ever, so Homo sapiens naturally does what it has always done when given new tools: it goes even bigger, higher, and bolder. We did it in buildings and now we’re doing it in data. But no matter how big that data is or what insights we glean from it, it is still just a snapshot: a moment in time. That’s why I think we need to stop getting stuck only on big data and start thinking about long data.

WIRED
Show threadRichardDec 24, 2022
@seldoncrisis Sounds interesting... have you read any of #PeterTurchin 's work? #cliodynamics
Sergi ValverdeDec 19, 2022
Through mathematical models, scientists such as Nicolas Rashevsky and Peter Turchin have established the presence of universal principles that underlie human cultural evolution. In this article, we examine the different contributions made to this theory. #cliodynamics #psychohistory #asimov https://metode.org/issues/monographs/rashevskys-dream.html
Rashevsky’s dream: A physico-mathematical foundation of history and culture

Recent advances in complex systems research, computer-based simulations, and large-scale databases, are paving the way towards fully developing a mathematical theory of human history.

Revista Mètode
JHShieberDec 4, 2022
"While we know that population busts in early farming societies were a frequent occurrence, we don’t yet know whether such cycles were universal, or whether there were periods and places when population levels stabilized for long periods of time."
#PopulationDynamics #History #Cliodynamics
https://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/the-collapse-of-simple-societies/
The Collapse of Simple Societies

Why do large-scale complex societies, within which >99% of humanity now lives, recurrently experience periods of social and political breakdown? This question is morbidly fascinating, especially since after we’ve entered the “Turbulent Twenties.” Books on

Peter Turchin
Show threadtripuApr 18, 2022

@gasull

Stupid opinion since I haven’t read the article, but from the outside the case for #cliodynamics looks to me as weak as the case for #technicalanalysis: systems so complex and rare as the History of countries and the price of stocks can’t be “predicted” by looking at past trends and patterns. Perhaps if we had had already millions of years of History, millions of nations with good written records, and millions of traded companies over the same long period of time — perhaps then some reliable patterns might emerge. And I’m still doubtful, given what little I know about #chaostheory.

(Just a hunch; epistemological confidence: low :)