The new fronts of denialism and climate skepticism

As early as 1912, some warned of the effects of massive CO2 emissions into the atmosphere by the new industrial era. As early as the late 1970s, internal studies by the fossil fuel industries made accurate projections linking global warming to CO2 emissions, predicting at the same time "dramatic environmental effects to come before the year 2050". Meanwhile, these same companies, especially ExxonMobil, tried to convince the public that it was impossible to establish a causal link between fossil fuel use and global warming because the models used to model climate response were too uncertain. Since the 1970s, advances in climate science have provided an increasingly clear statement of the reality of global warming (see IPCC Group I report, Chapter 1), while the 2021 IPCC report states that "there is unequivocal evidence that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land." As global warming intensifies in every region of the world (the year 2022 being emblematic) and its impacts worsen, this decade is critical to resolutely engage in a decrease of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite this, we are witnessing an intensification of the activity of online denialist and climate-skeptic groups and an upward revision of the emission targets of most of the oil majors that have just announced record annual profits (e.g. BP). In France, the intensification of denialist activism has been particularly marked since July 2022, with a triple climate-related news: a series of extreme events, the holding of COP27 with a strong presence of fossil fuel industries, and finally the convergence of global warming issues with those of the security of oil and gas supply due to the war in Ukraine. This study describes some of the strategies implemented by climate skeptic and denialist activists on Twitter to gain influence, quantifies their effects and highlights potential geopolitical motivations alongside the political and economic dimensions already present. It relies on methodologies developed at the CNRS at CAMS and at the Institut des Systèmes Complexes in Paris. Beyond "fact-checking", this study aims at a better understanding of the circulation of different narratives related to climate change and in particular those related to disinformation.