#MayTheFourth is just around the corner and with it the prospect of yet another ill conceived #CashRate rise… That is what the #RBA will deliver, if you’re to believe the majority of economic punters — not that I have much faith in economists’ speculations given they build their career on theorising about the past.

Still, if this does occur, I’d imagine it would be the equivalent of stomping on the gas pedal on the wrong side of the road to avoid an accident. Meanwhile, #JimChalmersMP driving behind it all will be squirming in his seat stomping on the brake pedal to avoid the mess created by the #RBA.

Much is going to be written about the RBA May and July meetings because, well…#Trump the well know insider traders and general fucktard.

#AusPol #Economics #StagflationFears #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy

Watching The Business on the ABC and…
I have to ask a few questions:

WIth so many neo-liberal economists taking up #Stagflation, #Inflation and #CashRate increases whether or not the war on #Iran comes to an end soon - are we looking at a self-fulfilling prophesy? Helped along by businesses raising prices ahead of the curve in a attempt to head off increasing #FossilFuel costs?

No one is talking about how well or otherwise the Australian economy is poised to cushion the predicted global economic shocks (Ie. The penetration of Renewables, rail transport, EVs, HousePV/btty systems, ICE Gas conversions, Fuel stocks and supply lines in Asia, price controls, etc.). Maybe because that’s harder to do than hitting the panic button.

Stock markets and shareholders ought not to be the be-all and end-all of economic life!

There are no hard, written in stone, rules about how to run an economy but for neo-classical (read neoliberal) stranglehold on economic thinking and political will or the lack thereof.

Yee gods help us all…

#Economics
#AusPol

A thoughtful piece from #AmyRemeikis in The Point.

I would only argue that #fuel prices were not the main reason for the #RBA disastrous decision to raise the #CashRate to 4.1%. Bullock herself started her press conference with “the labour market’ is too tight. IOW, the RBA is considering low empoyment figures (seemingly arbritrarily so, the same as their arbitrary acceptable inflation window percentage) to be the cause for the underlying inflation (which is nowhere to be seen in the latest data, see Greg Jericho’s many articles on the matter).

https://thepoint.com.au/opinions/260324-soaring-petrol-prices-have-exposed-a-rotten-core-in-australia

Yes, Fuel prices at the pump have soared — partially due to greed — and this is precicely why the latest #RBA #CashRate rise was a complete ballsup and a failure to apply basic experiencial #economics (as opposed to debunked theoretical #neoliberal claptrap). Consumers will, as a result of fuel costs, spend less on non-essential goods and services, therefore the #inflation beast will retreat somewhat.

Read more:
https://thepoint.com.au/explainers/260320-the-rba-wanted-to-slow-spending-but-petrol-prices-already-had

[edited for typos]
#GregJericho lays into the #RBA ‘s latest gaffe.

[The RBA said] “in addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation. Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen. As a result, the Board judged that there is a material risk that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously anticipated.” This is a total failure of basic economics, and suggestive of a panicked RBA board.

The impact on oil prices is due to the attacks on Iran and the blockage of cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing the RBA does will affect that.”

Read that again: “NOTHING the RBA does” will mitigate fuel cost increases due to the crisis in the MIddel East.

It couldn’t be clearer. An Economics 101 student would not even need the clarification. What is the RBA doing FFS? It seems clueless at times.

Read more:
https://thepoint.com.au/opinions/260317-raising-rates-while-petrol-prices-soar-shows-the-rba-ignoring-reality-and-basic-economics

#Inflation #RBA #CashRate #AusPol #Economics #NeoLiberalism

Rather not! I don’t know! What do you think? 🤷‍♀️ According to my forecasting system, the cash rate is set to hold steady. Despite the forecast mean being on a clear upwards trajectory, the forecast intervals include the current cash rate value decisively. I’m sticking with my call: HOLD! 🛑 My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/

#cashrate #forecast #rstats #rba

I never get tired of tooting #GregJericho ‘s articles, because what he says, most of the time, is not just informative, it’s a booster shot against the #FakeNews and #EconomicMisInformation the #msm spews out — unfortunately with that much misinformation being the main narrative of all but a few news outlets and the #FifthEstate, a lot of it is bound to be believed as truth: like the furphy about increasing wages driving up inflation — everyone should know by now the inflationary dragon is #GreedFlation.

“There hasn’t been a wage breakout since I was in primary school but do not worry – the RBA is still on the watch, ever on alert to raise interest rates in an effort to increase unemployment and lower wage growth.”
Read more:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2026/feb/18/real-wages-fall-australia-workers-economy

But the RBA is not about to let a debuked economic theory go to waste. So Greg is warning us of another rate rise likely to come if the RBA stays true to form — and why shouldn’t it?

Read more:
https://thepoint.com.au/opinions/260220-dont-panic-rba-low-unemployment-is-a-good-thing

#RBA #NeoClassicalEconomics #NeoLiberalEconomics #AusPol #CashRate #Inflation #WageGrowth

It is hard to argue against Greg Jericho’s case which aims to show that the RBA is wedded to an erroneous economic dogma. The #WageInflationSpiral (a #neoliberalism if there ever was one) is once again he impetus that drove the #RBA to raise the #CashRate

“The reason low unemployment drove speculators to bet that the RBA would raise rates is because the bank is very loud about suggesting that the labour market is “tight”. This is economic speak for there being too few people unemployed. Some economists (and everyone working for the RBA, it seems) worried about this because they believe it means employers will have to raise wages in order to attract and keep workers.
And if wages start going up faster, then so too, they argue, will inflation.”

Read it here:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2026/feb/04/rba-interest-rates-decision-analysis-reserve-bank-australia

#AusPol #MonetaryPolicy

It’s a RAISE! And maybe for the better! Inflation readings consistently outside of RBA’s target convinced everybody about the inevitability of the RAISEs. That’s what my forecasts capture. The current cash rate value is decisively outside of the predictive interval and the mean indicates an increase in its value. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/

#rstats #rba #cashrate #forecast