OnlineFirst - "Shoreline demos: The contested place of the public in a marine carbon removal trial" by @a_laurie_waller, Emily Cox, and Rob Bellamy:
#fieldtrials #publics #carbondioxideremoval #demonstrations #controversyanalysis
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/25148486251380158
A team around the The Goddess Of Water, Sonia Seneviratne,
investigate whether acquired drought propensity can be reversed by removing CO2 (CDR) from the atmosphere, meaning, does the hydrological cycle change back once CO2 concentration drops?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-025-00487-8
They start the models with pre-industrial CO2, then increase slowly, then decrease as slowly.
Once pre-industrial levels are reached again, the models continue for 60 years. And all this time, they count frequency and strength of agricultural* drought.
60yrs after 280ppm is reached again, half of the Mediterranean still keeps the "acquired drought skill" despite drop in CO2 and °C.
All other affected regions almost fully recover and almost in sync with CDR.
Surprisingly no drought hotspots: all of Asia, all of Africa except its Southern and Northern ends, and Canada.
"We find that drought increases in hotspot regions cannot be symmetrically reversed" by carbon direct removal, CDR.
(hysteresis: a system state that depends on the history of the system rather than on momentary environmental factors)
"Drought hysteresis and irreversibility are most pronounced in the Mediterranean, northern Central America, west and east southern Africa and southern Australia. Our findings imply irreversible drought impacts associated with CDR, highlighting the need for planning long-term drought adaptations."
Strongly related to the #RCPcollapse research I want to see.
Not very useful that they went all the way back to pre-industrial CO2 concentration. But they also snapshot the regional behaviour on being synced to removal. So that's really useful.
Avoid the Mediterranean.
Adapt to drought and then to changing conditions in:
USA and Mexico, west and north of Argentina up to Mexico, Australia's South and East coast, and on the African continent, if you stay North of Madagascar and South of Sudan_Burkina Faso, you avoid drought hotspots altogether. Southern Africa loses the drought skill in sync with carbon removal.
#CDR #negativeEmissionen #CarbonDioxideRemoval #drought #climateChange
Using an idealized multi-model experiment and a new hysteresis quantification method, this study shows that equivalent carbon dioxide removal fails to symmetrically reverse CO2-emissions-induced agroecological droughts, revealing irreversible impacts in hotspots in the Mediterranean, northern Central America, southern Africa and southern Australia, necessitating urgent adaptation planning.
"The world may need to remove up to 10 gigatons of CO2 each year by 2050 to stay below 1.5°C of warming.
A gigaton of CO2 is a lot of material. Removing several gigatons from the atmosphere each year by 2050 will require establishing an industry to rival some of the largest in the world today.
This article [shows] the massive scale of #CDR needed by 2050, using five key graphics."
https://rmi.org/what-we-really-mean-by-the-massive-scale-required-for-cdr-in-climate-goals/
#CarbonDioxideRemoval
New study in Nature Comms: Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges
"We show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests."
#netzero #LULUCF #ClimatePledges #Forests #ClimateCrisis #CarbonDioxideRemoval
Achieving net-zero climate targets requires substantial land for carbon dioxide removal. This paper quantifies the land area in countries’ climate pledges at approximately 1 billion hectares, often involving the conversion of existing land uses to forests.
> The AGU emphasizes two things. One is that, even if we gain a good understanding of the risks and benefits of a geoengineering technique, it should always be a secondary priority compared to limiting our carbon emissions.
#ClimateChange #SolarRadiationManagement #carbonDioxideRemoval
🌪️🌊🔥
"Don’t #overshoot
Why #CarbonDioxideRemoval will achieve too little, too late.
Many #climate scenarios bake in a temperature overshoot before technologies are used to scrub the atmosphere clean of emissions. Emerging science says that is probably a fool’s errand."
"The higher the overshoot, the greater the risk of irreversible events."
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03266-9
#ClimateChange #ClimateAction #ClimateScience #CDR #CarbonRemoval
OnlineFirst - "Relegitimising the voluntary carbon market: Visions of digital monitoring, reporting and verification" by Kirstine Lund Christiansen:
#carbonoffsets #socioecologicalfix #carbondioxideremoval #climatepolicy #naturebasedsolutions
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X241278937
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