So I've been looking at autocorrelation in the time series of UK CPI inflation this morning (because that's just what geeks do on Sunday mornings), and I noticed that there is little month-by-month autocorrelation, but a strong correlation with a 6-month lag and an even stronger one with a 12-month lag.

I guess the 12 month result is because some months tend to be similar each year (eg low inflation in January because of sales), but why the 6 month result?

#Inflation #Autocorrelation #RStats

(manuscript) The Disaster of the Critical Value Table of the Durbin-Watson Test

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/385302492_The_Disaster_of_the_Critical_Value_Table_of_the_Durbin-Watson_Test

still working~

(🧵 Thread)

#econometirca #econometrics #timeseries #workingpaper #autocorrelation #AI

Idea: I was listening to music with a strong beat while writing software. I started scrolling the screen with the beat, and it was a nice effect.

💡 What if the Linux GUI had an option to automatically react to rhythm in subtle ways, by optionally introducing short delays (100 ms) into visual movements, so things like scrolling text, or opening and closing windows lines up with the beat.

How: There could be rhythm server for Linux. It publishes the next timestamp for a beat (if it passes a threshold for groovyness).

Then, the terminal could choose to preferentially flush buffers with the next beat. The WM could also use the data when doing animations and easing.

The added latency limit would be configurable, with the default at the edge of what humans can detect. Serious party coders could increase the limit, which would impact usability but might look interesting.

#UXDesign #rhythm #pipewire #coding #debian #UX #kde #plasma #edm #autocorrelation #odd_combinations_of_hashtags

How much #cultural #variation around the globe is explained by #ecology?

"Results suggest that, on average, ecology explains a substantial amount of #human cultural variation above and beyond #spatial and #cultural #autocorrelation. The amount of variation explained depended on the metrics used, with current levels and average levels of ecological conditions explaining the greatest amounts of variance in human culture on average (16% and 20%, respectively)"

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2023.0485