https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9256153/jack-waterford-labors-law-rort-challenged-by-new-independents-strategy/

Teals, community independents, and, probably Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party may be able to walk around Labor's manipulation of the electoral laws to put themselves on an equal footing with Labor in their capacity to attract virtually unlimited donations, and, probably, increased access to public funding.

They need a party structure to get into the Labor rort. Only with it can they expand the sums they can spend. The Liberals are part of the rort, too, but face disaster at the next election - and a decline in public funding of perhaps $18 million.

As the debate of recent weeks has demonstrated, most of the teals and other moderate independents are not much attracted by the idea of becoming a party, even if to get out of restrictions imposed on them by Labor and the Coalition.

The restrictions which Labor has so crafted that they do not, in effect apply to the big mainstream parties put independents at a disadvantage, something Labor consciously - some would say corruptly - intended.

Labor's main form of evading rules it imposes on others is because of its branch structure. Each state or territorial branch, and the federal branch, is effectively regarded as a separate body for the purpose of funnelling donations to election campaigns.

Separate party administrations can and do shuffle, launder and deal with donations to be able to keep some embarrassing sources of funds below disclosure limits.

Beyond expenditure limits for candidates in particular electorates, they inject "national campaigning funds" on which limits do not apply into marginal seats. Only groups with party status get this sort of expanded access to funds. Independents (non-party) in single electorates do not have access to these expanded sources of funding and opportunities to evade donation disclosure rules.

The disadvantages will multiply at the next federal election, after "reforms" supposedly designed to create expenditure limits and donation transparency were rammed through both houses by the major parties. Don Farrell, the Labor factional chief, made little secret about his intentions to put candidates not in the mainstream parties at a disadvantage.

The Coalition party machine, with a 120-year history matching Labor's of creating room for rorts and avoidance of disclosure, supported the changes, making opposition by Greens and independents irrelevant.

If opinion polls are any indication, both parties in the Coalition are set for a battering at the next election. A massive loss of votes means a massive loss in the money given to candidates according to the number of first-preference votes received - previously $3.50 but set to rise to $5 indexed. The Liberals, who received $28 million at the last election might be looking at being lucky to get $10 or $12 million, making them much more dependent on donations.

By contrast Labor, which received about $38 million after the election, would expect to come out with about the same. This would give it a tremendous edge against the Coalition, with or without Pauline Hanson's One Nation.

In the past Pauline Hanson has been an inveterate winner from public funding even when her candidates have not won many seats. She may collect about $30 million at the 2028 election, even if her side of politics falls short of a majority. The money will mostly come from Coalition loss.

Community independents, including the teals, have received generous funding from donations, much to the annoyance of Labor, which hopes to peg them back with its disclosure laws in 2028. Collectively they fundraised perhaps $12 million in donations, and perhaps a total of $1.4 million in votes won. Although these independents are not, of course, contesting many seats, they are at a considerable disadvantage, in profile and advertising expenditure terms, to the mainstream parties. Most contest metropolitan seats, and much of their advertising budget is hard to focus on a specific electorate.

Although the conservative enemies of the teals make much of the donations received from Climate 200, in fact most of the donation income comes locally from members of community groups. They fundraise outside their electorates but do not have an enormous base. Nor are they able to create branches and associated bodies in the way that Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals, and now One Nation can. One Nation has always had big coffers from the number of votes per candidate (including Senate candidates) but has had, until recently, a more modest fundraising arm and an untidy corporate structure.

The teals and community independents are rightly very cautious about doing anything which suggests that they have become a party in the conventional sense. They may have a fairly common view - for example on honest government, climate change, conservative economic management and a liberal and moderate approach to immigration.

But the candidates do not always agree, and fear suggestions that they vote in a bloc, or that they do not bring independent and locally focused judgment, buoyed up by community meetings, to their representation. It's a more sensitive matter when their conservative opponents suggest that they are little more than Greens or creatures of the Climate 200 sponsorship.

Yet they are at a considerable campaigning and fundraising disadvantage if they let their opponents have rights, privileges and resources not allowed to them. Those who are angry at the discrimination seem to think that there is something fixed and legal about the nature of a party which could compromise their approach to voters, or force them, against their will, to take a common position on some issues.

In fact, the electoral legislation imposes no such requirement. It sets some minimal standards about public offices and registered addresses. Some parties, including Labor, have constitutions, rule books, and horizontal and vertical divisions of power between the federal and state spheres, and the trade union and membership base, but these have become dead letters to political and organisational leaderships.

Other groups, such as One Nation have highly authoritarian structures (there is only the pretense of a democratic structure; everyone must obey Pauline Hanson; and, at least until now, candidates must do all their own fundraising without much access to party reserves). The Electoral Office may require financial returns, but it does not police the governance of any of the parties.

What this means is that a collection of like-minded people can assemble under a very loose flag indeed. They do not need a particular title - and it need not include the word "party". Their title need not commit them to any policy, or system of governance, so long as they meet some minimum requirements such as notification of an office address and a person to whom the mail should be addressed. A group could get registered under the title Community Independents - something suggesting that they are independent of each other even if walking in broadly the same direction.

Such a "party" could decide not to campaign as a group, or on a common platform, and stress the local connections, the grassroots democracy in place and the differing credentials of different candidates. It is quite true that in Australia there has been a strong tradition of party discipline, particularly in the Labor caucus. By comparison, in the US, no Democrat and no Republican is required to follow the leader, or pre-commit to policy. Of course, some strong leaders, such as Trump, will sharply criticise some of his own if they do not support him, and some will be labelled as RINOs (Republicans in Name Only).

1/2

#AusPol #WhyTheFuckIsLabor #HahahahaLiebs #NatsAreNuts #GreensYEAH #VoteGreens #VoteProgIndies #PHONkedinthehead
A party of independents? It might be necessary with Labor's rigged funding rules

The next election poses a huge dilemma for independents.

Looking for how to shake up job placements, Labor turns to … John Howard

Labor had an opportunity to do what it said it would do in opposition and address Australia’s unfair and punitive mutual obligations system. But instead of brave reform, it announced a tiered system that divides up obligations depending on how ready the state thinks you are for work.

The Point
Our flagship climate policy is safeguarding fossil fuels, not the climate

The Safeguard Mechanism was designed to hold Australia's 200-plus largest industrial polluters to account. But as Australia Institute analysis demonstrates, instead of driving genuine emissions reductions, the Mechanism has become something closer to a very lucrative permission slip for fossil fuels to keep polluting and expanding.

The Point
@smitjo ta. yep i agree with him, have long felt our rigid party paradigm a major liability to democracy. in the specific current case though of possible new teals party, i oppose it as missing the point. the actual problem, for which this is their proposed solution, is twofold, & both explicitly the fault of this labs govt

- the outrageous political chicanery of elbow in denying Indies adequate office & staff resourcing
- the despicable corruption of their recent laws on donations, overtly bent to perpetuate 2PP & annihilate Indies & small parties

imo both areas should be moved to the auspices of AEC, entirely out of venal party politics

#auspol #whythefuckislabor #ProgIndies
ok so we ostensibly know why they fell down, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-27/sydney-vivid-festival-drone-failure-explainer/106724050, but we still do not know

- why "drone shows"
at all?
- why large public fireworks
at all?
- why permit massive data centres & genai shitfuckery?
- why RWNJs?
-
#whythefuckislabor
Why drones fell from the sky during Sydney's Vivid light show

The company behind the drone shows at Sydney's Vivid festival said spectators were not at risk when almost 90 unmanned aircraft fell from the sky during a display on Monday night. 

pm elbow is a pretty solid example of #ThePeterPrinciple

#auspol #whythefuckislabor
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/2026/05/22/real-world-budget-selling

Anthony Albanese’s burst of courage, changing his election campaign position of doing nothing on significant tax reform, has triggered more than the expected sound and fury. It is also proving a net positive for his government.

The prime minister has taken a personal hit in the published polls, with the Resolve poll in The Age putting Liberal leader Angus Taylor ahead of Albanese as preferred prime minister, 33-30, with 37 per cent of people undecided – a result not replicated elsewhere.

Labor, however, remains in an election-winning position in all the polls, despite it being the worst received budget since Paul Keating’s treasurer, John Dawkins, broke the “L-A-W” tax cuts promise in 1993.

Still, it was a minority of voters in Newspoll (47 per cent) who described the budget as bad, with 31 per cent saying it was neither good nor bad and 22 per cent finding it was good.

Privately, the prime minister has been rocked by the vehemence of the campaign against the budget, not so much from the “three right-wing parties” but from what he calls “their allies”. By that he means the legacy media, particularly News Corp and its flagship, The Australian.

Despite daily negative stories, canvassing every worst-case scenario, Newspoll found Labor’s primary vote static at 31 per cent, with the Coalition dropping a point to 20 per cent and One Nation jumping 3 points to 27 per cent.

Rival pollster Kos Samaras says this poll shows the budget response was “a lot of noise for what?” He says the polling over the past six months shows “all the moving is on the right and it’s profound”.

It makes Nationals leader Matt Canavan’s call for a snap election over the proposed reforms crazy brave.

Samaras expects his own RedBridge polling to mirror Newspoll, as the other published surveys did this week.

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham’s aggregate of all the polls is 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent Labor’s way against the Coalition. His One Nation shadow-2PP has it 52.9 per cent Labor’s way, against 47.1 for Pauline Hanson’s party.

Those numbers come after Angus Taylor threw caution to the wind and attempted to outflank One Nation on anti-immigration sentiment and policy. He promised to end bracket creep, creating a permanent rolling income tax cut. He would also repeal Labor’s changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing, as well as its targeting of tax minimisation in trusts.

But Newspoll found the prevailing view among voters was that the Coalition would not have delivered a better budget. Of respondents, 47 per cent believed that, against 39 per cent who disagreed and 14 per cent who were undecided.

The Resolve poll found broad support for the budget’s big-ticket items on tax reform. More people supported these changes than opposed them, with a significant number either undecided or neutral in their response.

This is in line with Labor’s own focus group research in the immediate budget aftermath. The government has lost skin but not as much as its opponents had hoped. Resolve found 45 per cent thought no less of Labor, against 36 per cent who had changed their view in the negative. A cohort of 15 per cent said the budget had improved their view of the government.

A key Labor strategist says the overall mood of the electorate is grim, with the war in the Middle East turbocharging inflation and fears rising over the security of transport fuels and vital fertiliser needed for primary production. In light of all of this, the strategist said he was not surprised that changes to the way Australians are taxed has made them apprehensive – even if the changes are fairer overall. According to Newspoll, a majority (52 per cent) thought the budget would leave them worse off.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says his handiwork has involved “a whole bunch of difficult political decisions”, and he is prepared “to wear some political heat for that”. He says he’s very proud of the reforms that are in the budget “because they will make a meaningful difference to the lives of a number of Australians, even if they cause us a bit of political difficulty in the near term”.

Albanese is very keen to have the major tax changes pass the parliament before the winter break in July. His critics say he is doing this to ram them through before there is an even louder crescendo of dissent.

The prime minister says the absence of the legislation is allowing campaigns to be run that “aren’t based on the facts”. He says that when people see the legislation they will be able to assess it for themselves.

Maybe, but it won’t stop the desperate misrepresentations. The Coalition, once again under the influence of Tony Abbott, that archetypal political pugilist, is determined to “fight ... fight ... fight” the changes all the way. They are calling for an extended Senate inquiry, taking evidence all around Australia. It sounds like the sort of roadshow shadow treasurer Tim Wilson successfully ran against Labor’s proposed franking credit reforms ahead of the 2019 election.

Now in opposition, the Liberals would need the Greens to support a similar roadshow if it were to go ahead. Senator Nick McKim has already chaired a Senate select committee inquiring into the capital gains tax discount, but says the balance of power party is “considering our approach”.

As the week progressed, Albanese showed no inclination to buckle under the relentless pressure his opponents and their “allies” were mounting. There is confidence in the higher echelons of the government that the message is resonating and people understand the reforms are directed at intergenerational fairness in home ownership.

A key minister says, “Everyone knows we are fighting for young people to have a chance to own a home.” He believes the fight just means “people value the commitment”.

Analysis by independent economist Saul Eslake suggests Treasury may have been too pessimistic in saying the tax changes would reduce housing supply by 35,000 homes. That’s a figure seized on by the opposition to reject the reform.

Writing in Guardian Australia, Eslake said “it’s possible that the combination of retaining tax breaks for investors in new builds while removing them for prospective investors in established dwellings will prompt a shift in investor demands towards new builds”.

Eslake says the net effect of the tax changes would be to boost the supply of housing rather than reduce it, contrary to what Treasury modelling suggests.

The glaring weakness in the Coalition and One Nation’s rejection of Labor’s reforms is that they have come up with nothing credible of their own to address the housing crisis.

Pauline Hanson says what the government is proposing is “communism” – the wealth transfer she would prefer to perpetuate is from wage-earners to investors. Don’t tell her low-income supporters in regional Australia, but she is not as much on their side as they would like to believe.

Angus Taylor shocked some in the party room when he used his budget reply speech to join Hanson in demonising “mass migration” and promising to discriminate against permanent residents and migrants in favour of “Australian citizens”. There is a belief in the parliamentary Liberal Party that the tough stand taken with little notice by Taylor was heavily influenced by Abbott and his former chief of staff, Peta Credlin. According to one fellow Liberal, Taylor has been “intellectually captured” by the pair.

Moderates are shaking their heads that Taylor shares Abbott’s belief that Peter Dutton failed because he was too weak on culture war issues and immigration policy.

1/2

#AusPol #WhyTheFuckIsLabor #HahahahaLiebs #NatsAreNuts #GreensYEAH #VoteGreens #VoteProgIndies #PHONkedinthehead
In the real world, the budget is selling

Anthony Albanese’s burst of courage, changing his election campaign position of doing nothing on significant tax reform, has triggered more than the expected sound and fury. It is also proving a net positive for his government.

The Saturday Paper
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9251600/jack-waterford-why-labors-policies-often-sink-after-launch/

Of all the things which most frustrate the Albanese government is the tendency of ministers to fall into a form of paralysis the moment it meets any sort of organised opposition, particularly from lobbies of the rich and powerful. Even when negative reaction has been predictable and responses to it have been rehearsed, or dealt with in written distributed materials, the first noise from the enemy seems to send the government into a panic, one that has the nervous nellies wondering whether they went too far. Ministers, from the Prime Minister down, suddenly seem to stutter or to stumble into long and detailed explanations of the sort that usually appears only when it is obvious that they are losing the argument.

Most of the arguments advanced against government budgetary measures about capital gains tax, trusts and negative gearing, or about the budget's slight tilt of the balance towards the younger generation do not stand up. Not by the Treasury logic and Labor's statements of intent. Just as importantly by the economic and managerial theories that opponents of the budget usually use to define ideal economic policy. The gap has been crude self-interest of a small but powerful group of older Australians, pretending a bogus concern for younger people who mostly stand to benefit.

The strongest opposition is coming from News Ltd and from segments of the old Fairfax press, not from principle but from the self-interest of a very limited number of taxpayers. Crikey has pointed to the fact that News is these days rather more a real estate business than a media organisation.

Opposition Treasury spokesman Tim Wilson has convenient arguments for preserving the tax status quo. These contradict arguments he has made himself about the inequity of a system which has tilted the balance strongly against younger generations many of whom are effectively shut out from the housing market. That examples of alleged disadvantage produced by the opposition, or from media commentators, come from perhaps five per cent of young voters already with a foot into the system shows how dishonest many of the arguments are. Much fairer criticism, indeed, would come from the proposed slow pace of implementation, and the grandfathering clauses which will slow implementation of the system. It is also noteworthy that many of the more vociferous objectors seem to forget that most of the OECD nations, including the United States, have long had capital gains taxes at full rates and do not permit negative gearing on the Australian model. These comparable nations, incidentally, also have so-called "death taxes" in a far clearer form than anything proposed in Australia.

Angus Taylor, leader of the opposition, has declared that a Coalition government elected to power would repeal the revenue measures proposed in the budget. What can be said with some certainty is that it is a meaningless promise, given the odds against election victory over the next six years. Most likely Taylor, who is hardly inspirational, will be well out of politics by then.

It seems clear from polling for example, that the number of Australians proposing to vote for One Nation has peaked. Even if One Nation support remains greater than the combined primary votes for the Liberals and the Nationals, the lot put together fall well short of the vote supporting the return of the present government, once one includes voters saying that they support the Greens. Indeed, if Labor and the Greens had the guts they would fight an election on a sensible immigration policy.

The idea that the combined anti-immigration vote has peaked, and will fall, makes sense. The One Nation vote is a protest vote, based primarily on general dissatisfaction with government. Its most consistent complaint is alleged high levels of immigration, and complaints that many of the old Coalition has joined, including with promises about artificial limits to immigration quotas. A few Liberals, including ones rather more on the conservative than the moderate side, have made it clear that they support Taylor's immigration policies only through clenched teeth. They see artificially low targets as unwise, because Australia continues to have a strong demand for skilled workers, not least in building affordable housing for younger Australians.

Just as importantly, they have a marked distaste for the broad hostility to migration and migrants, and the dog whistling to Australians of European ancestry about restricting entry of those who might not assimilate, which is to say (cough cough) Indians, African, Chinese and others who would have failed the standards of the old White Australian policy. They are also very doubtful about the political wisdom of going into the gutter by aping One Nation slogans, rather than focusing on clear policy differences, including on immigration. One Nation can be counted on to win any race to the bottom, and it is unlikely that Liberals can hold back the tide of disgust at the present state of the Liberals simply by echoing some of the worst of One Nation sentiments.

If Labor has, on paper at least, the arguments on budget tax policies, why is it not advancing them with passion and with force? It might say that its efforts to do so are being drowned out by the shrill opposition of Murdoch media and the Australian Financial Review and many old Fairfax advocates. There was a time, however, when Labor could routinely win elections in the face of unanimous opposition from the commercial media, if it took the opportunities to enter the argument. In theory, at least, it ought to have many more platforms now from which it can not only argue its case, but refine its arguments for different target groups, including younger Australians, women, the better educated, and people who will be disadvantaged by cuts to aged care, childcare and education. Although disability care through the National Disability Insurance Scheme faces cuts whichever party is in power, many voters would fear that the knife would be sharper from groups, including One Nation, cobbled together to form a government.

It recalls the seeming incapacity of Julia Gillard ever to get any sort of traction or breakthrough with any of the "announceables" that her advisers would have her come up with every Sunday. Always public relations rather than a policy construct, usually from her private office and/or one of her British strategic geniuses, it would, on a Sunday, seem to be bold, based on common sense and probably a good idea. It would be seen as substantial, a serious new initiative. Those doing the marketing would seem enthusiastic and firm, and Labor luvvies from the relevant lobbies would appear to gush over the decision and praise the government.

The initial media would be neutral or positive. By Monday afternoon, other lobbies would have got to work pointing out holes in the plan, and unexpected consequences. It would soon become apparent that there had been no serious "workshopping" of the plan, that potentially adverse lobbies had not been informed or squared, and that cost estimates, made on a minder's napkin were seriously awry. Ministers would suddenly become cautious and uncertain; media commentary would suddenly involve some sharp and well-informed questioning. At Tuesday's question time, there would be some brave but defiant rowing back. By Wednesday the noble plan would have sunk with all hands and never be referred to again. Until next Sunday, of course, when some fresh gimmick in another area, because no one, especially in a prime minister's office ever seems to learn.

1/2

#AusPol #WhyTheFuckIsLabor #HahahahaLiebs #NatsAreNuts #GreensYEAH #VoteGreens #VoteProgIndies #PHONkedinthehead
Why this budget's tax reforms are so hard to sell to voters

A government of insiders is losing its connection with voters.

Angus Taylor may have just created half a million new Labor voters

The Coalition’s plan to strip welfare access from non-citizens could accelerate a surge in citizenship and voter enrolment across migrant-heavy suburban seats critical to the Liberal Party’s electoral future.

Pearls and Irritations