Heinz WittenbrinkGeoengineering als Ausweg? Ein Podcast zu Chancen und Risiken einer künstlichen Abkühlung der Atmosphäre am Beispiel der AMOC
https://youtu.be/KnCxxncchEQ?si=NsIVz1YMAxBDItWC Komprimierte Informationen über die Möglichkeiten, die AMOC durch Geoengineering, vor allem durch die Injektion von Aerosolen in die Stratosphäre, am Umkippen zu hindern (Wieners & Breeze, 2026). Claudia Wieners ist eine Spezialistin für Geoengineering und für die Tipping Points im Klimasystem. […]
anlomedadI did something.
It's about the ColdBlob or SubPolarGyre or AMOC.
Specifically, about finding proxy locations on land for its annual evolution.
Taking SPG average sst in the months DJF and MAM, and computing also their year-on-year growth rate.
Then I computed the growth rate for DJF and MAM in all coordinates on land using Era5-Land 1951-2025.
And when the growthrate matches that of SPG within ±0.5 °C, it gets a ✅ .
6 ✅ per decade gets a 🔵 and counts toward selection.
Some more exclusion criteria applied, and I get a list of 315 locations on land for 🔵matching DJF growthrate, and a whopping additional 11,460 locations for MAM
In a 0.1x0.1 grid.
All DJF locations are in Papua. No proxies I know of have been recovered from Papua yet. I know all speleothems / stalagmites in caves🔴 , and all treerings ever analyzed🟢 , thanks to #NOAA .
But MAM °C has more locations. All of Indonesia basically is THE SPG in terms of growthrate. A few trees and speleothems match, one cave covers the whole #Holocene 🖖🏽
Large patches in Africa also match SPG in MAM. But only 2 short treering studies exist. No caves.
Middle and South America has plenty matching SPG MAM too, and a handful of trees and caves.
Yay.
#AMOC #climateChange #citizenscience #proxy #climateproxies #ColdBlob #SubPolarGyre
#Speleothem #treerings
ombraNew paper by Falkena, Dijkstra, Heydt
".. discuss how well mechanisms.. in the #subpolargyre are represented in #climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found"
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1833/2025/
🧵https://bsky.app/profile/swinda.bsky.social/post/3m4awkm5ds22g
"Those physically realistic models predict subpolar gyre #tipping around 2040-2050.This would lead to a local cooling of 1-2 degrees in 10 to 20 years. The Nordic seas would warm, .. and ...lead to more (intense) heat waves.
#amoc
".. discuss how well mechanisms.. in the #subpolargyre are represented in #climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found"
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1833/2025/
🧵https://bsky.app/profile/swinda.bsky.social/post/3m4awkm5ds22g
"Those physically realistic models predict subpolar gyre #tipping around 2040-2050.This would lead to a local cooling of 1-2 degrees in 10 to 20 years. The Nordic seas would warm, .. and ...lead to more (intense) heat waves.
#amoc
Ivi Choc#subpolargyre #bialves #molluscs #AMOC
Original open access article
Arellano-Nava et al. 3 Oct 2025, Sci. Adv.11,eadw3468
Recent and early 20th century destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic recorded in bivalves
The study, an analysis of the width and chemical composition of growth rings in clams and other bivalves, examined changes in the ocean south of Greenland during the last 150 years and found that the inflow of freshwater has been disrupting the #subpolargyre, which distributes ocean heat, since the 1950s.
The gyre is a central part of the deep water formation that keeps the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (#AMOC) running.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03102025/atlantic-meridional-overturning-current-disruption/
kowolf#Hafrun #amoc #subpolargyre #climate
The oldest animal ever found could reveal whether a crucial ocean current will collapse - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/24/amoc-collapse-system-climate/
The oldest animal ever found could reveal whether a crucial ocean current will collapse - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/24/amoc-collapse-system-climate/
anlomedadVery interesting. You're a star!
That's for a 4x CO2 experiment.
We'll have less than 2x CO2 (because fossil fuel supply chains collapse with everything else due to feedbacks in our human systems when #AMOC tips and halts).
Far less forcing than in the experiment.
That wind-driven element, "Ekman pumping" is intriguing. It would require a strengthening of the East/NorthEast surface wind across the North Atlantic. But the NorthEast direction is cut off, I imagine, due to the slowdown of the #SubpolarGyre as a result of AMOC shutdown.
Ah, no. The temperature gradient for the #jetstream to careen from warm Washington toward cold Scandinavia in the NorthEast is going to give Mr. Ekman a push as well.
How the jetstream across the Atlantic might behave in summers under such conditions ... hm.
P.S. I'll reduce the 120,000 years I assumed above, to 65,000 years, when all 3 Milankovic cycles [sufficiently] favour Northern Hemisphere again. See chart showing the M-cycles, CO2 and sea level for the past 450ky and 99ky into the future.
Guter Podcast zum Cold Blob und AMOC https://www.ardaudiothek.de/episode/iq-wissenschaft-und-forschung/raetselhafte-kaelteblase-geraet-der-subpolarwirbel-aus-dem-takt/bayern-2/13795411/
Mit #Rahmstorf, eh klar, aber noch eine Forscherin ist dabei, die speziell Interessantes erzählt.
Hab wieder was dazu gelernt.
Zum Beispiel ziemlich am Anfang, zum Subpolaren Wirbel, wie der überhaupt entsteht.
Durch Wind!
Der treibt das warme Golfstromwasser auf der Höhe New Yorks nach Osten. Und dort gibt es dann irgendwo so eine Art Kreuzung, wo der Wind nach Norden oder weiter nach Osten geht.
Wenn er nach Norden geht, treibt er damit auch den Wirbel an.
Und dann weht er auch mal vo Ost nach West... im Winter wohl..
Im Filmchen sieht man die v-Wind Komponente in den Wintermonaten. V-Wind ist rot, wenn der Wind nach Norden weht. Und blau, wenn er nach Süden weht. Daten: https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps/
Der Subpolar Gyre / Cold Blob ist auch nich immer an derselben Stelle, fest eingemauert oder so. Nee! Das wabert alles so fuzzy rum, mal mehr rechts und mal mehr links.
Und je nachdem ob mehr rechts oder mehr links, gibt es in Zentraleuropa starke Hitze.
Muss auch gucken, dass ich ein paper von ihr finde. Vll steht ja in der "Introduction" noch mehr Interessantes um Subpolar Gyre drin.
Podcast: Rätselhafte Kälteblase - Gerät der Subpolarwirbel aus dem Takt?
Der Subpolarwirbel im Nordatlantik hat großen Einfluss auf das Wetter. Durch den Klimawandel gerät er ins Stocken. Forscher haben bereits einen Zusammenhang mit Hitzewellen in Europa nachgewiesen. Es könnte noch schlimmer kommen - wenn er ganz stoppt und die Atlantische Meridionale Umwälzbewegung mit ihm. Ein Podcast von Roana Brogsitter. GesprächspartnerInnen: Dr. Marilena Oltmanns, Klimaphysikerin, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton https://noc.ac.uk/ Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf, Ozeanograf und Klimaforscher, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en Dr. Julian Krüger, Meteorologe, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie https://mpimet.mpg.de/startseite Feedback? Anregungen? Schreibt uns: WhatsApp (https://wa.me/491746744240) oder [email protected].
anlomedad@CelloMomOnCars
Thank you for sharing!
I'm wondering how the involved mechanisms then work to cool Western and Northern Europe. That it is via changes in the atmospheric currents is clear because else, the African #monsoon #weather wouldn't be affected as well.
Additionally, it is the winter which cools so significantly in a partial #AMOC collapse. While summers still - yet maybe more pronounced in collapse? – get heat from Africa via the #jetstream .
And if it is the winters that cool so significantly: how does it come to pass? In other words: is this current winter a harbinger? (Altho this winter is meddled-with by #HungaTonga 's impact on the jetstream particularly over Western Europe, see #MartinJucker preprint 2023 "Long-term climate impact of large stratospheric water vapor perturbations": the figure on jetstream in 300hPa in this first winter after eruption)
The atmospheric changes might be like this: when the subpolar gyre still worked, it created a barrier that prevented winter jetstream from lapping up cold polar air and spit it out over Western Europe.
With a changed (ie, cooler?) #SubpolarGyre in a partial AMOC collapse, the jetstream is able to meander more over that region, or maybe, not meander more but meander at a changed location, so the lapping tongue no more occurs over West Russia but then over West and Northern Europe.
If this were already happening, how would we see it in data from weather stations? The #GHCN has long-running weather stations from Scandinavia and Russia. I'm going to look for changes in winter low temperatures there. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/17/greenland-losing-30m-tonnes-of-ice-an-hour-study-reveals
Thank you for sharing!
I'm wondering how the involved mechanisms then work to cool Western and Northern Europe. That it is via changes in the atmospheric currents is clear because else, the African #monsoon #weather wouldn't be affected as well.
Additionally, it is the winter which cools so significantly in a partial #AMOC collapse. While summers still - yet maybe more pronounced in collapse? – get heat from Africa via the #jetstream .
And if it is the winters that cool so significantly: how does it come to pass? In other words: is this current winter a harbinger? (Altho this winter is meddled-with by #HungaTonga 's impact on the jetstream particularly over Western Europe, see #MartinJucker preprint 2023 "Long-term climate impact of large stratospheric water vapor perturbations": the figure on jetstream in 300hPa in this first winter after eruption)
The atmospheric changes might be like this: when the subpolar gyre still worked, it created a barrier that prevented winter jetstream from lapping up cold polar air and spit it out over Western Europe.
With a changed (ie, cooler?) #SubpolarGyre in a partial AMOC collapse, the jetstream is able to meander more over that region, or maybe, not meander more but meander at a changed location, so the lapping tongue no more occurs over West Russia but then over West and Northern Europe.
If this were already happening, how would we see it in data from weather stations? The #GHCN has long-running weather stations from Scandinavia and Russia. I'm going to look for changes in winter low temperatures there. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/17/greenland-losing-30m-tonnes-of-ice-an-hour-study-reveals