DrWebCivil Discourse – Maduro & Venezuela: What Happens Next – Joyce Vance
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Maduro & Venezuela: What Happens Next
And, a very special Substack Live Sunday morning
By Joyce Vance, Jan 03, 2026
This morning, Donald Trump explained, in a rambling press conference along with others in his administration, that the overnight strike in Venezuela was executed to arrest President Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. In other words, it’s not the kind of new hostilities, if you buy the administration’s line, that would require notice to or a declaration from Congress.
This approach, although it’s what I suggested in this morning’s post we should expect, leaves me with a major question: if the U.S. was just going in to Venezuela to arrest a defendant in a criminal case, which has now been done, why is it necessary to stick around to run the country? That is exactly what Trump said this morning that we’d be doing. “We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” the President said.
Senator Chuck Schumer tweeted: “The idea that Trump plans to now run Venezuela should strike fear in the hearts of all Americans. The American people have seen this before and paid the devastating price.”
Tomorrow morning at 11:30 a.m. ET, I’ll host a Substack Live with Jake Sullivan, who served as Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor from 2021 to 2025, and Jon Finer, Biden’s Deputy National Security Advisor. We’ll answer your questions about what comes next. Make sure you’re subscribed to Civil Discourse to get a notice when we go live—a free subscription will work for that. And leave any questions you have for us in the comments. Jake and Jon have a fantastic new podcast, The Long Game, that drops every Friday.
The new indictment:
The superseding indictment against Maduro, Flores, and four others was unsealed this morning. It contains three counts and a hefty amount of narrative. It is, as prosecutors say, a speaking indictment:
- Count One: Narcoterrorism Conspiracy; Title 21, United States Code, Section 960a; and Title 18, United States Code, Section 3238
- Count Two: Cocaine Importation Conspiracy; Title 21, United States Code, Section 963; and Title 18, United States Code, Section 3238
- Count Three: Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices; Title 18, United States Code, Sections 924(c)(l)(A), 924(c)(l)(B)(ii), 3238, and 2
- Count Four: Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices; Title 18, United States Code, Sections 924(0) and 3238
You can read the superseding indictment here. It’s signed by Trump’s new U.S. Attorney in the Southern District of New York, Jay Clayton, which means it was obtained no earlier than August of this year. It involves fewer defendants than the original 2020 indictment, which named 15 defendants, including Maduro. That could mean that some of the original defendants have become cooperators. We don’t know the details yet, but we will likely learn more in the course of detention hearings, which should follow shortly on the heels of the arraignment.
The superseding indictment adds additional allegations against Maduro and names his wife as a defendant for the first time. The basis for the indictment remains the same: Maduro and his co-defendants used government power to protect and promote drug trafficking crimes. The government alleges that “This cycle of narcotics-based corruption lines the pockets of Venezuelan officials and their families while also benefiting violent narco-terrorists who operate with impunity on Venezuelan soil and who help produce, protect, and transport tons of cocaine to the United States.”
To prevail on the “narcoterrorism” count (that label doesn’t appear in the statute), the government will have to prove that the defendants trafficked in illegal drugs, “knowing or intending to provide, directly or indirectly, anything of pecuniary value to any person or organization that has engaged or engages in terrorist activity.” This begs the same question raised by Trump’s earlier efforts to deport Venezuelans, who he claimed were part of the Tren de Aragua gang (it turned out many of them weren’t), and the justification for so-called kinetic strikes that have killed more than 100 people to date. The administration’s justification is that drug cartels are terrorist forces attacking the United States. Now we’ll see how that holds up in court.
Even if the government prevails on the legal argument, the indictment doesn’t offer much insight into how the government intends to tie Maduro to Tren de Aragua and other cartels and gangs. It offers more detail about FARC activity from 2018 and 2019. But prosecutors aren’t required to reveal all of their evidence in an indictment, simply enough to put a defendant on notice of the charges they have to defend against. Assessment of the strength of the government’s case will have to wait until defense lawyers file preliminary motions.
Maduro could be facing life in prison if he is convicted. The two drug counts carry a maximum sentence of life in prison, and mandatory minimum sentences of 20 years on Count One and 10 years on Count 2. The firearm charges carry a 30-year minimum prison term.
Will Congress do anything?
A Senatevotewill take place next week on a bipartisan war powers resolution to block Trump from engaging in further hostilities against Venezuela. It was already in the works, but there will be an increased sense of urgency around it now. Along with Schumer, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, and California Senator Adam Schiff, Kentucky Republican Rand Paul has signed on as a co-sponsor. The resolution is privileged, which means Senate Majority Leader John Thune will not be able to prevent it from coming to the floor. The resolution only needs a simple majority to pass the Senate.
Delaware Democrat Chris Coons, the ranking member on the Senate Committee on Defense Appropriations, issued a statement that read, “This military action is the next stage in President Trump’s incoherent and arguably illegal Venezuela operation. In recent briefings to Congress, senior administration officials said they were focused on combatting (sic) drug trafficking, not regime change, and made clear they had no plan for what would happen if Maduro was removed or overthrown. This was clearly false, and furthermore, a military operation to capture and overthrow a president – even an illegitimate one – is an act of war that must be authorized by Congress. Not only has the Trump administration not sought congressional approval, they did not even notify members of either party in Congress until after the strike had concluded. Protecting democracy should not be done through illegal means.”
Editor’s Note: The featured image at top was generated by WP AI. Below is also the embedded column/article for easy access. –DrWeb
Maduro & Venezuela: What Happens Next by Joyce Vance
And, a very special Substack Live Sunday morning Read on Substack
Maduro & Venezuela: What Happens Next by Joyce Vance
And, a very special Substack Live Sunday morning
Read on Substack #CiliaFlores #CivilDiscourse #DonaldTrump #Illegal #January32026 #JoyceVance #Kidnapping #Maduro #MilitaryAttack #PressConference #SouthernDistrictOfNewYork #SovereignNation #Substack #SundayLiveEvent #USDistrictCourt #Venezuela
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