update for 5/31/2024!!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you are enjoying your Spring! 💐💐💐

I just have an update on VOCs as I have to run out the door, and also not much has changed in terms of numbers yet. I'm so sorry this is all I have time for right now.

Nationally, for VOCs, we have a lot of fast movers that might bump up numbers for the summer as they have elsewhere globally already. Looks like the fastest are going to be KP.3 and especially LB.1.: https://ibb.co/wzcJ05J

While we don't have any immensely increased numbers so far, nationally they are starting to slowly rise, and source control will be needed as these immune evasive and FAST variants catch on.

In PA, we have quite a few of the FLiRT variants (in pink) and upcoming immune evasive variants (in teal) coming up. Numbers for these new variants are low but might rise steadily as the spring goes on.: https://ibb.co/h1XS2hP

IN NY/NJ, LB.1 is already at the top of the chart 👀 and the speed of its rise is incredible considering how fast current variants are already!: https://ibb.co/dpRDrPd

Watching these new mutations will give a big clue on when to tighten up source control.

In the meantime, keep that air clean and just for future safety, keep a stock of N95s handy for H5N1 as it spreads through more and more domesticated animal species, the lastest which is alpacas. This is starting to make epidemiologists and viral geneticists kinda nervous.

Insist on full disclosure of animal health/testing/sequencing from farms. You might consider non-dairy milk, or maybe ultra-pasteurized milk. Another option is UHT, shelf-stable milk in sterile packaging (like Parmalat).

 DO NOT CONSUME RAW MILK OR UNDERCOOKED MEAT. 

Hope to have more time to do this on Moday (but not sure) so have a great weekend and be safe! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1 #JNOne50

#IFYouAreDrinkingRawMilk__STOP__DOING__IT

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/24/2024!

Good morning SARS2PAians! (well, afternoon by the time I got all this ready)

I hope you are having a BEAUTIFUL and healthy day. 💐💐💐

_____
VOCs

Nationally, KP.2 is in the lead so far, easily displacng JN.1 variants.: https://ibb.co/JCWtxdr

KP.3 and LB.1 (DeFLiRT) are making FAST gains in the leaderboard, now up to around 5% each nationally.

They are still the top two successful variants that show great potential to take over from even KP.2.: https://ibb.co/kxHkfV1

🔴JN.1.50 is new, and was just designated on 5/18 and though genetically it's as fast as LB.1 and KP.3, it remains to be seen in meatspace how it will spread.

In PA, JN.1 still in the lead here in random sequencing at 20% and KP.2 behind it at 13%.: https://ibb.co/G7Nnft5

Unfortunately KP.3 has been found here. So we now have BOTH very fast DeFLiRT variants here for the summer, KP.3 and LB.1. Take care, keep windows open, clean the air, wear a quality respirator and be aware of social contacts. These two variants might push the numbers up this summer.

In NY/NJ, KP.2 in the lead and look at that LB.1....in second place at 10% of random testing already. Yikes. It's been making very fast gains for a while now there.: https://ibb.co/8xRfkkh

Some parts of Jersey have noticeable upticks of matarial concentraion on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/7STgtLZ

__________
Wastewater

Trying to get as much info as possible here since almsot everything useful is being discontinued. 🙄

SARS2 has been bumped up to MEDIUM nationally on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/Wf5MdxN

There are noticeable upticks starting to happen in the Harrisburg and Chester areas.: https://ibb.co/g3HQZp0

__________
Non-SARS2 Pathogens

Gastro pathogens Noro and Rotavirus are still in the HIGH category on WastewaterSCAN. Please wash hands carefully, wash fruits and veg, and be aware of kitchen cleanliness discipline to avoid cathing these bugs. Mostly because they're just gross 🤢

🔴Concerning H5N1 (HPAI, "bird flu"), we are NOT in flu season, so seeing upticks for Influenza A is extremely concerning.

This is what the FluA graphs SHOULD look like now in a normal post-FLuA season.: https://ibb.co/X4Q8szS

H5N1 is an influenza A. It's been upgraded to MEDIUM on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/wKC300x

However, the online tool makes no differentiation between H5N1 and other types of FLuA. It also cannot tell live virus from inactivated virus or its fragments.

It's extremely telling, though, that the highest concentration of FluA is located exatly where herd breakouts have or are occuring, mostly in the middle of the country in the plains corridor.

To reduce the risk of contracting, transmlitting, or allowing H5N1/HPAI to mutate,

🔴🔴🔴DO NOT DRINK RAW MILK.🔴🔴🔴

I don't give a flying fart if it's legal to sell/buy here in PA. Do NOT be that guy. Do NOT encourage this pathogen to mutate and DO NOT endanger your own life or everyone else's by consuming raw or unpasteurized dairy products.

Use caution in handling raw dairy products, especially meat and milk. Pasteurization has been proven to kill FluA and fluA is very sensitive to heat, but please use caution, fully cook raw meat, and use good sanitary habits when working with raw farm products.

As always, some method of source control is always good to help keep these pathogens in check whether they're just annoying and gross OR have a high kill rate.

I hope you stay safe, enjoy the open windows in Spring, and ARE NOT DRINKING RAW MILK.

Have a great week!!

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1 #JNOne50

#IFYouAreDrinkingRawMilk__STOP__DOING__IT

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good morning SARS2PAians!

I hope your very cloudy annd humid Spring is going well. 💐💐💐

The only thing I have right now are VOC visuals.

Nationally, KP.2 in the lead at 12% of random sequencing. The FLiRT variants are not far behind and VERy fast variants KP.3 and LB.1 are still making fast gains even after only a few days.: https://ibb.co/309Ygcj

In PA, classic JN.1 is still at the lead here. We don't have KP.3 here but we do have fast mover LB.1 which is now over 5% of random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/CpyDWkH

IN NY/NJ, immune evasive variants LB.1 already at over 7% of testing and KP.3 almost at 5%.: https://ibb.co/LZ1hZM7

__________
Wastewater

Biobot has released a statement saying they are stopping keeping up their COVID-19 wastwater visuals. There's still WastewaterSCAN but only three sheds are on there.: https://ibb.co/2tYPPcm

https://biobot.io/from-raw-data-to-actionable-insights-biobots-evolution-of-public-data-sharing/

This is another removal of a GREAT tool that helped everyone stay informed, and gave a heads-up when to buckle down on source control issues.

A very good potential replacement for Biobot is Iowa Covid-19 Tracker and I'll start to try to get familiar with that as soon as I can sit down to do it so the vizzes might look very different soon.: https://iowacovid19tracker.org/

I hope to have more info on Friday, and until then have a GREAT week and safe Spring! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1

#Biobot #IowaCOVIDTracker

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/17/2024!

Good morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you are staying healthy during this very cloudy and rainy period! 🌦🌧☁️☔️

VOCs

Nationally, the FLiRT group (in pink on the graph), which is the first group that can cause a rise in summer numbers in a few wweeks, is still pushing closer and closer to the top of the chart. FLiRT variant KP.2 is already at almost 10% nationally in random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/Wxtgg1N

The second group (KP.3, LB.1, JN.1.32) that can push up summer numbers is not far behind and is FAST.

To complicate issues even more:

It's been advised where I'm cruising around for this info that the second group is not only VERY immune-evasive to current variant antibodies, but also returning to a more lung-based symptom set rather a gut-based set. JN.1 is mainly centered in the gut, which makes wastewater monitoring more sensitive and more accurate.

A return to a more lung-based centered illness is a bad thing and will make wastewater testing not-as-sensitive as it was for JN.1 relatives.

In PA, KP.2 is already in the lead of random sequencing results at 16% of share.: https://ibb.co/6XpWGfF

We already have LB.1 here so it's oging to very important to track this fast moving and immune evasive variant.

In NY/NJ, KP.3 and LB.1 in fifth and sixth places on the leaderboard. Their rise is increasing quickly as they're up to over 4% of varaint share, up from 3% a week ago.: https://ibb.co/9gsdZ0W

A 1% increase in such a short amount of time in a field of already very fast variants is noteworthy. In a race of thoroughbreds, varaints like this are the potential triple-crown winners.

__________
Wastewater

Wastewater levels are still very good (low.) Nationally we're at the same level as last year but not low enough to match 2021 yet.: https://ibb.co/Y3Tv51h

In PA, not much to say. EVERYONE is smashing it. Bucks county area a bit higher than naitonal levels and trending upwards. PLEase use precaution and some sort of source control so these numbers don't go back up.: https://ibb.co/hd2FcNh

__________

That's all I have this morning, so I hope you have a GREAT week! I apologize for not updating consistently as data is harder to obtain and H5N1 takes over the foreground of virology conversations (as it should, understandable)!!

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/13/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope your chilly Spring is going well! 💐💐💐

Just a very quick VOC update as there is absolutely nothing really updated to work with this week 🙄

While numbers are still very very low right now (which is great), the virology world and variant hunters are watching a few new mutations lately.

The two most important coming up are KP.3 and LB.1.

Globally, KP.3 is already in 2nd place, very high in places like the UK and Australia, easily growing past previous JN.1 incarnations AND FLiRT variants.: https://ibb.co/ch19ph8

It carries a very rare mutation (S:Q493E) that enhances its fitness and will enable it to grow much fater than previous JN.1 incarnations.: https://ibb.co/9vx0JTn

It is IMMUNE EVASIVE compared to all current acquired immunity, both by vaccination and infection. It's fast enough and evasive enough to probably bump up numbers in June or July.

In the US, KP.3 is in relatively low numbers right now: https://ibb.co/XpRF6D6

BUT KP.3 is growing very quickly as the previous variant snapshot show when put together:

4/01-- 0.34%

4/05-- 0.44%

4/12-- 0.63%

4/19-- 1.17%

4/25-- 1.55%

5/03-- 1.64%

5/06-- 2.23%

5/12-- 3.20%

(This is fast in a landscape that's already thoroughly saturated very very vast variants.)

In PA, variant sequencers have not seen KP.3 pop up yet (doesn't mean it's not here, sequencing and testing are soooooo loooow but at least it's not showing up on the leaderboard.): https://ibb.co/4YzwNFN

However, LB.1 (from the FLiRT group but with an important deletion {S:531del}) is another very fast variant that is probably enough to bump up numbers too.

The summer will probably be FLiRT + FLiRT children vs. KP.3 (nicknamed FLuQE) + FLuQE children.

Those two mutation classes together wil probably start pushing up numbers again in early June.

Unfortunately that's all I have for now as it's getting harder and harder to find updated info.

I hope your Spring continues to be healthy! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !