𝑮7𝑰𝙕𝑼 𝑹𝙍𝑫Radio Propagation
A strong trans-Atlantic and N Hemisphere sporadic-E opening is in progress.
Orange=50 MHz
Hot pink=FM Band 2
10 minute cadence
Space Weather
CME WATCH RESTARTED:
Proton levels as measured by the EPAM instrument on ACE at L1 are rising quickly.
This is a sure sign that the CME hasn't missed us entirely and that we will be catching the westward leg of it very soon.
If you imagine the shape of a croissant, the thinning "legs" extend all the way back to the sun to the east and west, whilst the fat core heads far away from the sun.
We can expect a long period of storming with fairly chaotic Bz values whilst the structure passes through.
#spaceweather
#aurora
#radiopropagation
#amateurradio
#g7izu
Space Weather
CME Watch: We're waiting for the first signs of the CME arrival. As of 10h30 UT we don't see much going on, but stay tuned as I'll be very quick to let you know of it's arrival.
No major changes in the prediction - G3-G4 is possible, but not guaranteed. We're unlikely to see the core of the CME as it's somewhat offset to the south-east, but the effects of a following coronal hole may just push it further west, causing it to have more effect on us. We're likely to see "flux rope" conditions from the edge of the storm, which tend to be very turbulent.
If the storm arrives earlier it will be stronger than if it arrives later. A second eruption from a neighbouring active region may slightly complicate the structure of the CME, so we don't really know how the next few hours will play out.
Stay tuned, or better still monitor my Space Weather Dashboard. It'll be interesting if nothing else!
Space Weather
CME update
Latest analysis suggests the CME is slower than first suggested by models, and impact maybe after 12h UT on the 8th (but no guarantees!)
The chance of visible aurora in Europe in the evening is increasing!
#spaceweather
#radiopropagation
#amateurradio
#aurora
#g7izu
Space Weather
CME update
A strong solar storm is inbound to Earth following an M1.8 flare yesterday.
The best estimates of the CMEs arrival time are early to mid-morning on the 8th (UT), but predictions have a span of many hours and estimates have been wrong in the past. An early assessment using Stereo A imagery suggest that the storm is slower than expected.
There is a strong possibility of G3 to G4 storming. HF radio, GPS and power grids could be affected.
Low and high energy solar proton levels are also rising, with a prediction for an S1 solar radiation storm which will affect HF radio paths across the polar regions, and increased dosage risks for high altitude fliers and astronauts.
Radio Propagation
Sporadic-E FM band 2 is being reported between UK and Azores.
Orange=50 MHz
Hot pink=FM Band II
Space Weather
Second (or is it the 3rd?) CME is incoming - the main event!
At L1 the solar wind speed has jump up to >600km/s, and the Bz has swung sharply south. This is good for aurora hunters, but bad for anyone else like power grid operators and satellite users.
Starting in less than an hour, Earth's magnetic field will take quite a large hit.
Stay tuned for details.
Space Weather
CME arrival update
There are 3-4 CMEs in transit from the sun, but only one is pretty much square on to us. The others are either slightly east or slightly west of us, but we will very likely catch the edges of these.
NOAA estimates arrival near midnight UT on the night of the 4th/5th, but it could be +/- 12 hours from that because the situation is very messy and the forecasters are mostly guessing! Be ready from midday on the 4th onwards, but expect a long wait if nothing appears immediately. Aurora photographers should expect a good show if they can get away from the midnight sun in the north.
Radio conditions have already taken a hit from the flares yesterday, and further degradation will occur once the storms hit. Expect GPS disruption in places - signals will be degraded or could even be lost for short periods.
#spaceweather
#aurora
#amateurradio
#radiopropagation
#g7izu
Radio Propagation
Very high MUF over eastern Europe continuing for much of the day.
My ionospheric path monitor also has a magnetic field layer active, hence the colours out in space. This will hopefully be demonstrated later this week when the solar storms reach us ;-)
Orange=50 MHz
Hot pink=FM Band 2
Red=144 MHz