Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

I hope you are staying safe under this unusually hot weather. Please drink lots of water, pace yourself in the hottest hours of the day, and avoid caffeine! 🔥☀️🔥

If you must keep windows and doors closed during peak heat hours, run that Corsi-Rosenthal box to keep air clean.

Extremely hot weather precautions (closing doors and windows) are diametrically opposed to SARS2 control, much like midwinter heat retention and smoke prevention, but source control is still possible!

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VOCs

Nationally, KP.3.x.y and LB.x.y are the latest fastest variants. KP.2.3 is at the top, just barely, at almost 6% of national random sequencing, and KP.2 is already on the way out from the upcoming takover of KP.3 and LB.x variants.: https://ibb.co/fSZ7WRn

KP.3.1 is already in 3rd place and KP.3.3 already in fourth. KP.3.x and LB.x already, together, makes the largest proportion of random sequencing.

We are collectively too slow to react usefully to this virus as of now. National numbers are starting to go up from the sheer immune escape of these latest variants.

IN PA, lots of troublesome variants here already. KP.2.3 and KP.3.1 already tied for FIRST place here at 13% of random sequencing each. LB.1 and LB.1.7 right behind.: https://ibb.co/ccCmVbX

     Please consider masking up with a quality respirator in crowded places so these immune-escaping variants are kept at bay....ESPECIALLY during intense heat which makes keeping doors and windows open harder, and BEFORE JN.1/KP.3 vaccinations are available.      

In NY/NJ, LB.1.7 already at the top of the chart with a solid 10% of share. These new mutations are FAST due to immune escape. Practice source control to have a healthy Summer!: https://ibb.co/QNj7YJy

The latest CDC NOWCAST reflects all this...it shows KP.3 at a solid 33% of new infections. Together with LB.1, these two are estimated to at least HALF of current infections.: https://ibb.co/6RCStZs

We can see the impact of immune escape variants in other metrics, too.

Walgreens already has a majority of Eastern and Southern states at the highest change in positivity ratio from the previous week, and has for a while now.: https://ibb.co/XjDY2DP

In PA, Walgreens has a third of new tests showing positives. Testing is horribly low but the proportion is going up every week, and more tests will probably be done as people feel they need them done.: https://ibb.co/rvvB06B

CDC Early indicators show definite increases in test positivity and esecially ED visits, up 12.6% since last week!: https://ibb.co/0MzPY8q

CDC has ED visits growing nationally. This is due to immune escape of new variants. PA is showing moderate increases in ED visits due to SARS2 diagnoses. The overall level is still minimal, but new variants will keep bumping these numbers up of people ignore source control.: https://ibb.co/3mnzXgj

You can see the obvious advantage KP.3 has over older variants in this chart (the leftmost variant): https://ibb.co/BgjGkTr

Chart by virologist Benji Murrell.: https://ibb.co/vHj7RKQ

Sadly, we remain one of the States reporting the highest proportional deaths in a three-month period. 225 people have passed in the past 3 months from COVID.: https://ibb.co/G0phq72

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Wastewater

WastewaterSCAN has national levels in SARS2 as HIGH in all regions.: https://ibb.co/jJSHb4V

In PA, lots of stations showing moderate increases in SARS2 material and increases are especially high in central Westmoreland Co. Pitt and Philly remain stable. No doubt this is due to newer immune-escaping variants.: https://ibb.co/qxfwg59

In our region, individual stations are showing medium and low levels individually but with a definite trend of many stations toward "high" levels.: https://ibb.co/tQFq4sZ

As immune-evasive mutations continue to permeate the State it's going to get increasingly important to perform some sort of source control. Mask up, stay home when sick, and run those Corsi-Rosenthal boxes if you need that A/C on!! 🔥☀️🔥

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#FLuQE #Q493E #NOWCAST
#KP3 #LB1
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Muggy Morning SARS2PAians! ☁️💐☁️

I hope you are having a safe Spring!

#VOCs

The top news lately are the newest variants causing country-wide summer waves including Spain: https://ibb.co/hRpvjt5

and Portugal: https://ibb.co/khTtyJX

They are KP.3.x.y and LB.x.y.

These new immune evasive variants are filling up hospitals and causing notable increases in deaths.

KP.3 is now the variant "grandfather" that is the fastest, the most immune evasive, and the most easily bound to cells. Specifically, the most watched upcoming variant is its grandchild, KP.3.1.1.

The newest variants that have a very good chance of causing a sizeable increase in numbers, if not a full blown-out wave, are variants of KP.3 that already have immune evasive mutations (FLuQE) but also have an advantageous specific spike deletion (S:S31del).

These new and fastest variants are immune evasive to BOTH current vaccinations, AND prior infections.

Nationally, KP.2 is still just barely at the top of the leaderboard. KP.2.3 is right behind it, already a variant that is being watched.: https://ibb.co/p0d8G8n

🔴KP.3.1.1 is absolutely blazing fast and burning through Spain, Portugal and other countries, and is part of KP-DEL31.

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NOTE: "KP-DEL31" is gonna be my nickname for it, not variant hunters or virologists. Just to call it something easily condensed and recognizeable for now. They might decide on a different nickname soon. These names are just for convenience. (You don't call your cousin Mister James Robert Smith every time, do you? You call him JimBob or Smitty. It just makes talking easier.)

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I've highlighted FLiRT in pink on the national screenshot but I'll drop it soon as KP-DEL31 becomes more and more relevant.

There's no specific results for PA on the Tableau site. Probably not enough testing here.

In NY/NJ, I've highlighted KP-DEL31 in green on the NY/NJ leaderboard, and as you can see, all the top 5 variants there have this very important spike deletion. But KP.3.1.1 is the variant to keep eyes on.: https://ibb.co/Jcv0rF7

KP.3.1.1 is already found (in only a few days!) in TX, NY, CA, CO, NJ, WA, and VA.

🔴If you've dropped wearing respirators for now you might want to reconsider putting them back on as KP.3.1.1 makes gains and spring moves along.

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#Wastewater

Wastewater has returned to HIGH levels in the Eastern and Southern states. KP.2, KP.3 and LB.x.y variants are working together on driving this.: https://ibb.co/0nHqQPS

In our region, specifically testing in Maryland is showing a return to higher levels.: https://ibb.co/99MSpy0

The PA wastewater dashboard is showing LARGE increases in Philly, and sizeable increases in Centre and Indiana counties.: https://ibb.co/0J14Tty

MASK UP, oh my Philly ❤️️!

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#Vaccines

Whoa I had a whole angry thing typed out here and juuuuuuust checked back on Twitter, and Dr. Eric Topol wrote just 2 hrs ago that the US FDA has changed its decision for the upcoming vaccine base!!: https://ibb.co/xzB6GVb

The newest mRNA vaccines will be based on KP.2 and NOT JN.1!

This is a wise decision and fantastic news!!

This will certainly better prepare us for Summer.

(NOTE: **Novavax** will have a JN.1 based booster. Novavax is completely different as it has proven effective through multiple years with ONE base so that vaccine will probably not have to be changed as often.)

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🔴Even with vaccines, there are always other things we can do to practice source control!

keep those windows OPEN

wear a respirator

keep the air clean

move meetings outside

work from home

build a Corsi-Rosenthal box

stay home if you are sick!

Continue to have a great and safe Spring!! 💐💐💐

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA #Pennsylvania #PA
#FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
#FLuQE #Q493E
#KP2 #KP3 #LB1 #Moderna #Pfizer #Novavax
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 6/7/2024!

Good morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you're enjoying this beautiful Spring 💐💐💐

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VOCs

Nationally, KP.2 barely holding on to the top slot on the leaderboard at 8.22%. Fast, immune-evasive LB.1 is directly behind and most likely will take over in a week or less.: https://ibb.co/Q6ZZhsN

Immune-evasive KP.3 is also on the way up.

In PA, KP.3 and LB.1 has not been found in hte (horribly low) random testing we're doing. LB.1 did show up earlier, and "not finding" doesn't mean it's not around, but to not find such a fast variant in qualtities to put it on the PA board is promising.: https://ibb.co/ZN8Nrfp

In NY/NJ, LB.1 has easily displaced KP.2 for the top slot, with LB.1 at almost 17% of share and KP.2 behind at 9%.: https://ibb.co/mRR03KB

Lots of new mutations added in the past few weeks to the latest CDC NOWCAST.: https://ibb.co/b7y1mXb

Even on here, KP.3 is shown to be predicted as the TOP circulating variant, with KP.2 sandwiched between it and also-new-and-evasive LB.1.

Due to antigenic drift/effective ACE2 binding/communal laxness in prevention, this is probably going to bump numbers up for the summer.

Eevn though numbers a still low nationally, Walgreens COVID19 dashboard has already had large increases of positivity in a large number of States.: https://ibb.co/WHcFZK3

Pennsylvania has been considered at a large increase for quite a while already on there.: https://ibb.co/mc0CbPq

JN.1.50, KP.3.2 and KP.2.3 (yes those numbers are weirdly reversed) are also very fast, very immune-landscape-elusive mutes to watch, too.

I hope that I'm wrong but it seems that we'll be drowning in a soup of fast varaints for the fall/winter. My opinion only: This winter might be...something else...if the wrong vaccine formula is used.

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Wastewater

Though numbers in PA are still relatively low, WastewaterSCAN has SARS2 levels at MEDIUM. Maryland/DC is starting to tick upward fast.: https://ibb.co/55JvPbt

PA WSS has McKean County showing heavy SARS2 material increases in wastewater, and moderstew increases in Philly.: https://ibb.co/8Pdz6MR

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Vaccine News

The most reliable viral geneticists and epidemiologists I'm watching has already said a JN.1 vaccine will be outdated.: https://ibb.co/vBgbr2g

🔴THIS IS NOT DUE TO VACCINES BEING INHERENTLY INEFFECTIVE. Do not spread that disnformation.

This is due to the superfast antigenic drift of SARS2, and also us being too slow to communally react to this virus. If a JN.1 vaccine is produced it will hardly effect any useful protection at all.: https://ibb.co/1dFTRKm

The fast rate which this virus gains mutations is absolutely not slowing down, and will most likely never slow down.

It is VITAL that corporate science (as in, the corporate producers of vaccines) keep up with mutations and if need be, drop outdated mutation bases FAST to change formula to one that will actually work effectively.

It is NECESSARY to even being the conversation now with KP.2.

We cannot afford to be slow in considering vaccination formulas or distribution.

Keeping the air clean is decidedly easier in better weather, but if numbers are going up in your area, PLEASE use some sort of source control. Wear a quality respirator, stay home if you are sick, test repeatedly with symptoms!

Enjoy your Spring and keep that air clean! 💐💐💐

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA #Pennsylvania #PA #FLiRT #F456L #R346T
#spike_f456l #spike_r346t
#Q493E

#KP2 #KP3 #LB1

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !