@Centurion480

I put what I call #PeakCivilisation at the 2008 #FinancialCrisis, but the year 2000 #DotComCrash is another possibility. Some put it as early as the 1973 #OilCrisis. Everything past the peak is on the falling side of the curve.

Another financial crisis is coming for sure. Predicting exactly when it will hit is hard but I'm betting sooner rather than later. I'm also betting that higher inflation and increasing cost of living aren't going to go away, just get worse.

#Collapse #CivilisationCollapse #Overshoot #EcologicalOvershoot

@kentpitman @LordCaramac @MattMastodon @breadandcircuses

Yes the reality will be far from a 'graceful proportional decline' due to tipping points and various discontinuities caused by events, in particular wars as we have seen recently with the effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on the supply of fuel and food.

Wars are always about resources and given where we are headed I think we can expect an increasing number of wars of all sizes without being able easily to predict when they will occur.

It is, of course, therefore impossible to include the effects of these wars, and other 'black swan events' directly in the model and means that projections for the future should be taken to be the expected mean average over several years rather than accurate values for any particular time.

#CivilisationCollapse #PeakCivilisation #Extinction #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #collapse

@kentpitman @LordCaramac @MattMastodon @breadandcircuses

For some properly researched and modelled figures regarding #collapse, the Journal of Industrial Ecology have published some research entitled 'Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model'. You can read the whole article here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442

But the most immediately instructive part is the State of the World Plot here: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Recalibration23-improved-run-compared-to-BAU-The-underlying-data-for-this-figureare_fig3_375610074

Note that food production is less than 50% of the 2024 figure by 2050. Industrial output is less than 25%. Population has declined by about 0.5 Billion.

OK, so maybe 2040 is a bit pessimistic for 'grow your own food or die' but please note that population is less than 50% by 2100.

#CivilisationCollapse #PeakCivilisation #Extinction #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis

@LordCaramac @kentpitman @breadandcircuses

Love all of this and agree with all of it, except 'the peak of the Industrial Age is near'.

I believe we are already past it, or what I call #PeakCivilisation and are already on the downward slope.

I put the peak at either the 2008 financial crash or the 1973 oil crisis. The current rising food prices and increase in general inflation are not going down as the #ClimateCrisis increasingly makes agriculture more difficult and #ExtremeWeather events cause increasingly serious financial loses worldwide. We are on the downward slope and not going back.

#Collapse #CivilisationCollapse #Overshoot #EcologicalOvershoot #Extinction