Mastodawn

3/11
#2 Overconfidence kills. States systematically overestimate their own superiority and underestimate the enemy’s adaptability. Documented by Dominic Johnson (2004). Pattern: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan.
#Overconfidence #Cognitivebias #Vietnam #Iraq #Afghanistan

WIST Quotations Mar 5

A quotation from Churchill

Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.

Winston Churchill (1874-1965) British statesman and author
My Early Life: A Roving Commission, ch. 18 “With Buller to the Cape” (1930)

More about this quote: wist.info/churchill-winston/11…

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #churchill #winstonchurchill #control #declarationofwar #error #events #expectations #fortune #hubris #misfortune #overconfidence #perspective #presumption #surprises #uncontrolled #unexpected #victory #war

Churchill, Winston - My Early Life: A Roving Commission, ch. 18 "With Buller to the Cape" (1930) | WIST Quotations

Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he…

WIST Quotations

WIST Quotations Jan 8

A quotation from Josh Billings

The time tew be karefullest iz when we hav a hand full ov trumps.

[The time to be carefullest is when we have a hand full of trumps.]

Josh Billings (1818-1885) American humorist, aphorist [pseud. of Henry Wheeler Shaw]
Josh Billings’ Farmer’s Allminax, 1870-06 (1870 ed.)

More about this quote: wist.info/billings-josh/75899/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #joshbillings #advantage #care #carefulness #caution #certainty #confidence #control #expectations #overconfidence #winning

Billings, Josh - Josh Billings' Farmer's Allminax, 1870-06 (1870 ed.) | WIST Quotations

The time tew be karefullest iz when we hav a hand full ov trumps. [The time to be carefullest is when we have a hand full of trumps.] Repeated in Everybody's Friend, Or; Josh Billing's Encyclopedia and Proverbial Philosophy of Wit and Humor, ch. 156 "Affurisms: Embers on the Harth"…

WIST Quotations

Knowledge Zone Dec 13

Can #Diamonds Save The #Planet? : Medium

#Trust, but verify: Leading in the age of #AI #Overconfidence : Misc

One hundred years of #QuantumMechanics ($) : Science

Latest #KnowledgeLinks

https://knowledgezone.co.in/resources/bookmarks

Jazzynupe Nov 13

How Overconfidence Cost One Bank $1.3 Billion - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_QK4stCJU
#Veritasium #Banking #Overconfidence #Errors #Finances

Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong

YouTube

Terviral Nov 12

Bagaimana Mengelola Overconfidence Setelah Serangkaian Profit

#Tradingan - Bagaimana Mengelola #Overconfidence Setelah Serangkaian Profit - Dalam dunia #trading, setiap trader pasti pernah merasakan euforia setelah serangkaian profit. Rasanya luar biasa ketika #strategi yang dijalankan berhasil memberikan hasil positif, #grafik saldo akun meningkat, dan kepercayaan diri melonjak. Namun, di balik momen kemenangan itu, tersembunyi ancaman #psikologis yang sering kali…

https://tradingan.com/bagaimana-mengelola-overconfidence-setelah-serangkaian-profit

Bagaimana Mengelola Overconfidence Setelah Serangkaian Profit - Tradingan

#Tradingan - Bagaimana Mengelola #Overconfidence Setelah Serangkaian Profit - Dalam dunia #trading, setiap trader pasti pernah merasakan euforia setelah serangkaian profit. Rasanya luar biasa ketika #strategi yang dijalankan berhasil memberikan hasil positif, #grafik saldo akun meningkat, dan kepercayaan diri melonjak. Namun, di balik momen kemenangan itu, tersembunyi ancaman #psikologis yang sering kali tidak disadari —

Tradingan - Belajar Trading di Broker Terbaik

N-gated Hacker News Nov 10

🎉 Ah, yes, the classic tale where #AI models are the ultimate enablers of delusional self-confidence! 🤖 Clearly, #ChatGPT is the proud sponsor of every amateur philosopher's journey into the abyss of misguided wisdom 💡—because who needs facts when you have overconfident ignorance? 😂
https://bytesauna.com/post/dunning-kruger #Delusions #AmateurPhilosophy #MisguidedWisdom #Overconfidence #HackerNews #ngated

LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger | ByteSauna

ChatGPT and LLMs amplify both insight and illusion. They are not knowledge engines, but confidence engines shaping how we think and learn.

Dennis Alexis Valin Dittrich Oct 19

Are we teaching students AI competence or dependence? https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2025/10/17/are-we-teaching-students-ai-competence-or-dependence/
"Universities face a clear decision: do we want graduates who can merely use #AI, or citizens who can think with it?

The first path—continuing current approaches—produces students who appear competent but cannot function intellectually without AI assistance. They become sophisticated content consumers rather than independent thinkers.

The second path requires courage to acknowledge current failures and commitment to genuine educational reform. It means prioritising intellectual struggle over efficient content production, critical evaluation over polished outputs, and sustainable learning over short-term performance gains."
#metacognitiveLaziness #overconfidence #education

Are we teaching students AI competence or dependence? - LSE Impact

Can you universities overcome the mismatch between current teaching and learning practices, their evaluation and the ubiquitous use of AI?

LSE Impact - Understanding impact and practice in academic research

Terviral Oct 10

Menghindari Bias Emosi dalam Trading Setelah Profit Besar (Overconfidence Trap)

#Tradingan - Menghindari #Bias Emosi dalam #Trading Setelah Profit Besar (#Overconfidence Trap) - Dalam dunia trading, setiap #trader tentu menginginkan momen ketika grafik bergerak sesuai prediksi dan akun mereka menunjukkan angka profit besar. Momen ini sering kali menimbulkan rasa bangga dan kepercayaan diri tinggi, seolah semua #analisis dan #strategi akhirnya membuahkan hasil. Namun,…

https://tradingan.com/menghindari-bias-emosi-dalam-trading-setelah-profit-besar-overconfidence-trap

Menghindari Bias Emosi dalam Trading Setelah Profit Besar (Overconfidence Trap) - Tradingan

#Tradingan - Menghindari #Bias Emosi dalam #Trading Setelah Profit Besar (#Overconfidence Trap) - Dalam dunia trading, setiap #trader tentu menginginkan momen ketika grafik bergerak sesuai prediksi dan akun mereka menunjukkan angka profit besar. Momen ini sering kali menimbulkan rasa bangga dan kepercayaan diri tinggi, seolah semua #analisis dan #strategi akhirnya membuahkan hasil. Namun, di balik

Tradingan - Belajar Trading di Broker Terbaik

WIST Quotations Has Moved!Sep 23

A quotation from A. A. Milne

Kanga said to Roo, “Drink up your milk first, dear, and talk afterwards.” So Roo, who was drinking his milk, tried to say that he could do both at once … and had to be patted on the back and dried for quite a long time afterwards.

A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
Winnie-the-Pooh, ch. 10 “Christopher Robin Gives a Pooh Party” (1926)

More info about this quote: wist.info/milne-a-a/2842/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #winniethepooh #kanga #roo #milk #drinking #eating, #mouth #overconfidence #mess