Oil market for WTI is in the closed-for-benchmarking phase which gets us a spicy meatball of $105/barrel. Fun times! Also, the gap between West Texas and Brent is the narrowest it's been in days. More "inconvenient source" buying, I suppose? But I don't know.
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@tithonium Oil is having a great time! Shitstain burbled up some puke and it's been party time ever since! Up 4% in an afternoon is impressive! If you like trainwrecks.
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Hi, it's Monday.
These numbers tell to me that the markets think - overall - that there's effective progress on the Strait of Hormuz only once the US nondeliveries date described by JP Morgan (and linked to above in thread) hits on April 15th. Recovery time from that date would line up reasonably well with "through June, as late as early July" with normalcy not returning until autumn.
Futures prices today - as in, the cost of a given month vs. the cost of a given month on Friday - are up through October, falling afterwards. So a barrel of oil for delivery in October costs more than it did on Friday; a barrel of oil for delivery in November costs _less_ than it did on Friday, and that's a reversal.
Thailand’s government faces mounting scrutiny over its fuel subsidy plan and excise tax policies, as officials defend measures to ease costs for consumers while opposition leaders warn that ordinary citizens could bear most of the financial burden.
From downchain:
You can calculate impact duration by taking the number of days since strait closure and adding it to the impact date.
Massive slowdown starting March 1st, closure March 5th. Monday is the 30th; that's 25 days using the shortest calculation; 30 at the longest.
Add in time for port systems restarts and repairs and it's even longer; I don't know anything about oil port operation startup times, but I do know it's not all at once, so let's say two weeks. So you're talking about a month to a month and a half of shortages _no matter what_, already baked in.
Even if it's settled _tomorrow_, we still get to deal with this - tho' with less of an uncertainty price premium, it would be less bad.
A couple of days ago I talked about how we haven't hit real oil shortages - _yet_, here:
https://mastodon.murkworks.net/@moira/116304043451750923
Marketwatch are reporting on a J.P. Morgan analysis from Thursday which includes a map showing when the first wave of that _does_ hit. Unsurprisingly, it varies by location.
Their reporting is behind a paywall, which is a little rude given that they're just saying what JP Morgan is warning people about, but here's their link anyway:
And here's an archive.is alt-link for you:
And here's a direct map link for you, so you can see it nice and big:
https://images.mktw.net/im-00084239?width=700&size=1.871345029239766&pixel_ratio=2
Tick tock, motherfuckers.
Brace for impact.
gooooooood morning asia trading!
that'sa spicy oil opening too (WTI up $2.71 a barrel)
(ignore the US stock futures market, it's not pure noise but it may as well be)
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