Trumps approval percentage (the thing he himself cares most about in the world) has now entered the thirties for the first time.
This is not just one poll. It is the combined and weighted average by #NateSilver of all major us polls.

Seeing how such a fast-increasing majority now regard him an incompetent failure, Trump must be near mental brakedown.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

Are liberals abandoning #BlueSky for #X?

That’s what the headline reads in this #NewYorker article which forces the reader to consume #NateSilver musings before approaching the headline subject

Alternative #SocialMedia such as BlueSky or #Mastodon has seen a decline in posting volume following an initial anti #Twitter surge

The big question is why many liberals remained or have chosen to return to X given #Musk toxicity. Is it simply the #NetworkEffect?

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/social-media-is-navigating-its-sectarian-phase

I see a claim on Twitter that Americans reporting poor mental health are much more likely to be Ds, and those reporting excellent mental health are much more likely to be Rs. (The claim is from #NateSilver, but I've seen it elsewhere.)

1. Can't believe everything you read on the Internet.

2. Might be true.

3. I wonder if there's a relationship between mental health and party affiliation in Canada.

https://x.com/robbysoave/status/1929619568659513537

Via #MarginalRevolution

#uspol #politics

#natesilver has talked about a floor for #Trump 's approval rating, however, I think we can't discuss this president's approval without realizing how likely a fat tail event could occur and change things.

Remember the Adam Kurdi photo? The financial crisis? The pandemic?

Other presidents try to avoid creating high variability because of downside risks, this president runs towards volatility.

#uspol

https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

Email subscription pop-ups need to not be a thing on webpages.

I'm always mistaking them for paywalls, assuming the page isn't accessible, and moving on.

I *just* discovered that #NateSilver's "Silver Bulletin" *isn't* for paying subscribers only.... just because it kept asking for my email which looked like a "present your login" demand.

FiveThirtyEight, the website started by Nate Silver in 2007, and which shot to fame after its model predicted the 2008 U.S. election results in 49 of 50 states, is closing. This is a result of company Disney making cuts across ABC News, which acquired FiveThirtyEight in 2018 (Silver departed to start his own Silver Bulletin Substack in 2023). Here's more from NiemanLabs about what this all means.

https://flip.it/kj9UnO

#News #Media #Elections #Polling #NateSilver #FiveThirtyEight #Journalism #DataJournalism