iokevinsLakshya Jain at Split Ticket, on the difference between median and modal outcome probabilities (50/50 modal outcome either get all 7):
"Yikes. Well, this seems to have panned out on the wrong side of the coin for Democrats. Modest (and very normal) polling miss to Trump of ~2 points in the Rust Belt, ~1-2 points in the Sun Belt, and it gave him all 7."
https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1853857845839606058
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#unitedStates #election #polling #LakshyaJain #Harris #Election2024 #elections #electionday #electionday2024
Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) on X
One more thing we've said many times: The pre-election data is somewhat *unclear*. The median outcome is a close election. But the *modal* outcome is not necessarily that. There's a ~50% chance that Harris or Trump just sweep all 7 swing states. Polling error is correlated.