Update for 3/1/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians! ❄️

Welcome to March, after Leap Day 🐇🐏🐸!

There's no new CDC stuff today.

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VOCs

Nothing currently new with VOCs, JN.1 all over the place nationally: https://ibb.co/GncBGTR

and in PA of course.: https://ibb.co/yS1wq0c

Scientists are still watching JN.1.11, and even though it's sort of fizzled out itself, its children are now moving progressively faster as it develops.

Faster than its parent, JN.1.11.1 is moving along and is being found in most new sampling.

Along with it, JN.1.11.1.1, which is shortened to KP.1, has great potential to make a dent in its grandparent's leaderboard status.

I'm also seeing a LOT of JN.1.16 both here in Canada by the latest sequencing experts. I'm just going to make a mental note of JN.1.16 because it and also JN.1.11.1 are both moving sorta quickly through Canada and are also found in the NY/NJ area.: https://ibb.co/R3Tmstt

None of these are "major eathshaking variants" but to have something faster NOW will bump numbers back up for Spring and we DO NOT want that!

Nothing all that significant in PA yet. No JN.1.16, JN.1.11, JN.1.11.1, or KP.1.

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Wastewater

Nationally, SARS2 material found in wastewater is DROPPING again!: https://ibb.co/3RM4DDk

This is great. We are starting to approach the lower levels of previous years.: https://ibb.co/pbHnDDJ

Regionally, all regions are down except for the Midwest which is bumping upwards.: https://ibb.co/MhJmxX4

In PA, all 5 sheds that report to Biobot are droping significantly!!: https://ibb.co/tPhVHWJ

And so are the Harrisburg and UPark areas which report to WastewaterSCAN. This is great for still having winter weather. We're handling it. We're doing something right!: https://ibb.co/5cWQDHh

The State PA Wastewater Dashboard now has many sheds, especially in the East, in the blue, SARS concentration lessening.: https://ibb.co/Wx2Pf2J

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Non-SARS2 Wastewater

OK, now for the not-so-great wastewater news: we're getting smashed by non-SARS pathogens like FluA, FluB, and Norovirus (which is the "24-hr stomach bug").

Numbers of FluA and FluB are rising significantly in all sheds that report to WastewaterSCAN.

FluA: https://ibb.co/Xkn6xYL
FluB: https://ibb.co/84wfBH9

Especially in UPark with FluB, yikes. Please wear a quality respirator to control this. Not doing so means more learning loss!

UPark is getting hit hard with Norovirus, which is already at HIGH levels and is going vertical there.: https://ibb.co/svpJB1t

C'mon, UPark, get a hold of this so your Spring won't be a mess! 💐

 WASH hands, WASH food you eat and don't prepare food if you are sick to prevent the spread of Noro. It's just gross. Don't spread it!

It's still going to take a bit of work but if we do, we'll be more prepared for a healthier Spring.

And that in both scenarios: if we have a relatively calm COVID Spring with no new crazyfast variant (less likely), and also we won't be fighting pathogens on many different fronts if we DO have a crazyfast variant (more likely).

Stay healthy and have a great March! ❄️💐❄️

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #JN1Eleven #JN1Eleven1 #JN1Sixteen #JN116 #KP1 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Noro

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #Wastewater #StayHomeIfSick #SourceControl #USESourceControl #COVIDSourceControl

Update for 2/02/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you're staying dry with all this winter rain! (Sorry I haven't mirrored on Fedi for a while, i had major important stuff going on.)

There's no new CDC stuff today, but also not much new info to write about in total, JN.1.11 doesn't seem to be taking off right now, and numbers are still doing very well in spite of colder weather (when air cleaning and freshening is a bit more difficult).

THIS IS GOOD! I don't want to have any more news here ever! 🎊

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VOCs

Nationally, nothing different yet. JN.1 and JN.1.4 still at the top. JN.1.11 still way down at 0.13% and though it's in 5 states and a few more sequences have been found, it hasn't risen above 1% yet.: https://ibb.co/wgZHftH

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Wastewater

Nationally, the decline is starting to level off a bit. Hopefully it continues down after more data is collected.: https://ibb.co/MkcDDX5

Regionally, the West is ticking a bit upwards while everyone else is levelling off.: https://ibb.co/kXdhcTJ

In PA, the 5 stations reporting to Biobot are still doing fabulously. Luzerne and Lackawanna still quite above the national average though.: https://ibb.co/M1KzWJy

According to PA's own wastewater monitoring site numbers are holding steady through the state except thre's an uptick in Franklin Co and over by Pottstown.: https://ibb.co/n3hfVrY

FranklinCo: https://ibb.co/VCb9Z9N

Pottstown: https://ibb.co/0Jg6Gy8

Please use caution to keep these numbers from going back up and causing life, learning, and financial loss.

I just want to shoutout Erie Co since I lost track of there, Erie doesn't report to Biobot but it IS on the PA Wastewater dashboard.

It's not only that Erie's numbers are low, it's that (except for a post-holiday small rise) the absolute baseline there is going down!! Look at that. : https://ibb.co/RyVt4bn

That's amazing. Every county, State, and territories' chart should look like this.

     Thank you Erie!     

Another short update is a good update. Please keep using caution especially with at-risk people and in large public gatherings. Wear a quality respirator in places where there is tightly enclosed space with little ventilation (elevators, restrooms, large public closets, etc.)

Keep that air fresh and clean and we'll be fantastic by Spring! ❄️❄️🌷

#JN1Eleven

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #BA286 #JN1 #HV1 #WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #Flu #Influenza #RSV #Wastewater

Update for 1/22/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

Warmer temperatures are ahead, finally, after this bitter cold spell.❄️❄️❄️

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VOCs

There's not much new info out there and of course JN.1 and its child JN.1.4 still dominate the variant leaderboard, so this update will be brief as I have family stuff to do this morning anyway.

It's all going to be about closely watching JN.1.11 (JN-one-eleven).

It's now in 5 states as now it's been found in Washington State, and is spreading blazingly fast in India.

JN.1.11 is now accounting for 0.13% of all random sequencing in the US, up from 0.8%. (Yes, it matters to watch it at those low numbers. Low numbers become top leaderboard numbers eventually!).: https://ibb.co/q92Mccf

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CDC

The new hospital admits map looks very much improved since last time. Still some increased activity in Philly, Pike Co, and Lawrence Co. Significant increases in Tioga.: https://ibb.co/n6YqkGj

The Northeast US still struggles with lots of occupied inpatient beds. Lots of increases here as COVID filters through the medical system. Increases from Wayne Co down southwest through Huntingdon Co, over to Jefferson Co and up to Potter and McKean.: https://ibb.co/cyzjP7j

ICU Beds now rising through the State too, especially in Berks, Lancaster, Franklin Co up through to Centre, and the northwest corner of the State excluding Crawford Co.: https://ibb.co/wNWptSH

The 3-month death metric unfortunately remains high in most states including PA, and if you compare to last week, this number is increasing steadily in a lot of States.: https://ibb.co/9TNjnkW

We are sadly experiencing over 300 deaths a month from COVID, 1004 deaths in the past 3 months alone.

❄️❄️❄️Don't become a statistic! Please keep wearing those quality respirators, keep the air clean, be aware of social contacts, and get those vaccinations! 😷❄️❄️❄️

#JN1Eleven

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #BA286 #JN1 #HV1 #WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #Flu #Influenza #RSV #Wastewater

Update for 1/19/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

So. How 'bout that snow? ❄️❄️❄️

Please be cautious and don't travel today if you don't have to! (And don't travel even if you do have to, if you can help it!)

There's no new CDC map stuff today.

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VOCs

Nationally, JN.1 at the top of the leaderboard at over 32% of sequencing.: https://ibb.co/vsK3j09

Please remember ALL sequencing is very slow so these numbers are delayed by weeks. Its child JN.1.4 in second place at over 16%.

In PA, JN.1 and its child mutation JN.1.4 at the top of the chart, reflecting naitonal levels.: https://ibb.co/Bcp6Skk

In NY/NJ, numbers also reflect national levels, ans the first few successful lineages are JN.1, JN.1.4, and HV.1.: https://ibb.co/WBk99sG

XDD is a recombinant that has potential to keep up with and even surpass JN.1.

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Lineage News

I want to bring your attention to two potentially problematic new mutations: Previously mentioned XDD (a recombo of EG.5.1.1 and JN.1,) and also especially JN.1.11.

Note: That is J-N-ONE-ELEVEN, and I'll hashtag it here on the Fediverse as #JN1Eleven so it won't get confused with other names like JN.1.1.1 or JN.11.1. Understanding the correct lineage name is vital in tracking!

JN.1.11 has a bonkers high estimated fitness (ability to reproduce, infect, take over the lineage leaderboard etc.) based on genomic info alone.: https://ibb.co/J28MbXh

It was only sequenced this month and is already in 5 countries: India, USA, Singapore, Israel, and the UK.

It's already in at least 4 US States: TX, CO, MD and NC.: https://ibb.co/vDhvmX2

Reminder that the JN.x.y series also as a whole has a bonkers high estimated fitness and binding ability based on genomics alone that you can see here on the ACE2/Immune Escape estimation graph.: https://ibb.co/cJ7dLRT

Numbers in wastewater are starting to go down from the original JN.1, but the trouble with this JN.1 clan is it mutates quickly AND all of it is fast. It has the potential to raise the absolute baseline high and keep it there so it never goes down IF we all do not practice some form of source control.

Schools as they open will contribute to rising cases and increased absences all over the place, for kids AND for adults. The way to combat this is source control.

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Wastewater

Nationally, SARS2 in wastewater starting to decline.: https://ibb.co/ftKcw5N

Regionally, the Northeast on a sharp downturn and the rest of the regions holding steady or ever so slightly declining.: https://ibb.co/KbjPYLR

Please don't get comfy with this until we know how schoolkids are going to fare.

In PA, the 5/11 Biobot up-to-date sheds are showing a promising downturn, ChesterCo and BucksCo down to meeting the national average level again.: https://ibb.co/0MTv8cm

MontCo is back to smashing it going BELOW national levels!

According to the PA DOH wastewater site (thank you so much to a supercool Fediverse reader that pointed this site out for me!!...thank you lemon❤️️) sheds in CentreCo, near Philly and in MonroeCo are experiencing increases in tested SARS2 material.: https://ibb.co/BgDtfH0

On WastewaterSCAN, levels are still HIGH nationally for SARS2, RSV, and Norovirus (which is the "24hr stomach thing" from tainted surfaces/food). Make sure your utensils and eating places are cleaning things properly...this stuff's just gross 🤢: https://ibb.co/LSnpD2j

We are not out of the woods yet with this illness season. PLEASE practice some source control as this blazing fast JN.x.y clan takes over and can push numbers way up if we get hit with multiple very fit variants at once.
NOWCAST

The latest NOWCAST from CDC is out. JN.1 estimated at 85% of cases this week! 👀🚀👀🚀👀🚀: https://ibb.co/LS53WZH

Lots of junk out there and JN.x.y is some seriously fast business. Please  doooooooooo the source control  and we can prevent life, learning, and financial loss and have an easy transition into spring! 😷😷😷

(And be careful out there today too ❄️❄️❄️)

#JN1Eleven

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #BA286 #JN1 #HV1 #WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #Flu #Influenza #RSV #Wastewater