Just out a collaboration and fun #rstats modelling project.
Buddenhagen CE, McGrannachan C, Bourdôt G, Lamoureaux S, Garrett KA, Kaine G, Mason NWH (2026) Simple network models integrate global change, social dynamics and management interventions in biosecurity scenario analysis. NeoBiota 106: 107-139. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.106.161880
Global change and public participation are both areas of considerable uncertainty in estimating the success of biosecurity response strategies, but are poorly integrated in most available scenario analysis frameworks. We introduce INApest(), a novel #network simulation method which integrates social and global change factors, as well as pest biology and multiple management variables in scenario analyses of biosecurity responses. INApest() separates the management response into four key parameters: probability of detection; management adoption; eradication of local populations; spread reduction (e.g. through movement restrictions or hygiene measures). It also permits simulation of biosecurity responses which evolve organically as new incidences of the pest are detected and information about the pest and management technologies spread through the network. We look at Chilean needle grass Nassella neesiana management scenarios.
#rstats #biosecurity #IAS