Modellierung der COVID-Infektionszahlen in Deutschland (2020–2024) - Notfall + Rettungsmedizin

To estimate the societal consequences of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV 2) pandemic, there is a lack of reliable data that depict the temporal course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in Germany, taking into account the unreported cases. Based on three differently constructed model calculations, we estimate the monthly SARS-CoV‑2 infection numbers in Germany for the first 5 years of the pandemic (2020–2024). A total of between 160 and 197 million infections result, i.e., significantly more than the 39 million infections reported by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). In the year 2024, the unreported case factor with respect to the official RKI data is over 80.