There may be a “next economy,” but it will not deliver the same kind of per capita GDP growth that people expect from the past.
The article "There Is No 'Next Economy'" by The Honest Sorcerer, published April 10, 2026 drives home a clear and compelling conclusion [1]. The so-called green/renewable/electrified economy (EVs, solar panels, batteries, etc.) is not a separate, independent system waiting to replace the fossil-fuel one. This "green" or electrified successor is a parasitic extension of the existing fossil-fuel industrial system, with no independent biophysical foundation. If that one economy falters or collapses under resource depletion, war, geopolitical shocks, or overshoot, there's no backup waiting in the wings. Mining, refining, shipping, and manufacturing at global scale run on dispatchable fossil energy.
The author uses the electric vehicle (EV) as an example. EVs require metals like graphite, copper, nickel, and lithium. None of these metals can be mined, refined, or shaped without fossil fuels. The author also explains the production of aluminum, a material used in EVs. Australia, a major bauxite producer, faces a fuel crisis. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects fuel supply. This impacts mining and production.
The author further discusses graphite, a component in batteries. Graphite is made from needle coke, a by-product of oil refining. Lithium mining in Australia is also disrupted due to diesel shortages. Copper and silver production were already declining before the war. The crisis affects sulphur supplies, which are used to make sulfuric acid for mining.
So, to repeat, today fossil fuels are essential not just for transportation, but for making almost everything.
It must be noted that the author assumes that there will be no major technological shifts and there will be no change in what we measure as “value”.
1. https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/there-is-no-next-economy
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