"Methane emissions cause 25% of global heating today", https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/17/revealed-world-worst-methane-leaks-global-heating

that's incorrect.
For the experienced warming of 1.1°C in the decade 2010-2019, the assessment report AR6-WG1 attributes 0.8°C to carbon dioxide and 0.51°C to methane.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-2/

This half a degree came from back then 1840 ppb CH4 in the atmosphere.

I am no maths geek ^^ but it looks like 0.5 is not a quarter of 1.1C.
More like 2 quarters. Or half.

The decadal average of 1840 ppm is now 1000 ppb higher https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/

Despite methane getting broken down after 10 years: All of the 1840ppb which the AR6 looked at for that decade 2010-2019 above, have already vanished. Gone. Puff. Bombed to bits by "OH radicals", split into water and CO2.

But we simply managed to re-emit the same amount – plus 1000ppb more*.

If 1840ppb = 0.51C, then today's 1945ppb is about 0.54C.
Or just over a third of the experienced warming of just below 1.5C by now.

The 25% in the article maybe come from the concept of "Global Warming Potential": potential warming over the course of 100 years?
But our civilisation isn't eroded by the concept of a Global Mean 100-year potential. It is eroded by the warming = extreme weather pummelling societies today. To which our methane emissions contribute a third.

Of which 25% come from beef and dairy consumption, 20% from rice paddies, the rest from fossil fuel and decomposing organics in landfills.
Replacing beef and dairy with plant-based nutrition shaves off 0.14C immediately from the avoided methane contribution alone.
When the land currently in use for beef and dairy is also rewilded, nature can draw down over 700 Gt of CO2 within 30 years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00603-4

That shaves another 0.3C off the warming.
Bringing us down to 2014_temperatures.
2014? So Syria would still become a failed state due to that mega drought and neoliberal privatisation of water access.
But Tehran's and Johannesburg's Water DayZero would be ages away.
Buying more time…

#extremeweather #climateChange #beef #methane #GlobalMean #Dayzerodroughts