This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor, but my inflation expectations are more in line with those of the dissenters.

People see the gas/diesel price shocks. Most people aren't yet really seeing the shipping price shocks. The goods price shock hasn't hit yet, but it absolutely will; if you look you can see it coming.

As for food, well, people are seeing a little foods price shock but it's mostly transportation impacts passed along so relatively low-key so far for most, but if fertiliser supplies don't get sorted - China's helping with that in eastern Asia, sharing from their considerable reserves stockpile - the hard impacts will be four to six months off.

#economy #InterestRates #FedReserve #prices #inflation

Oh, also of interest: the headlines note that there were the most dissenters on this rates decision since 1992. Since people were looking for a rate cut the implication is that the dissenters wanted one.

That is NOT CORRECT.

There were four dissents.

_One_ wanted an immediate rate cut, as context around the headlines would imply.

The other three wanted the forward-looking possible-rate-cut-languge _removed_. They wanted no rate cut now, and they wanted the suggestion of a rate cut at the next meeting _taken out_, meaning they expect higher inflation.

This is the opposite of the contextual headline implication and one should take it onboard for one's inflation expectations accordingly.

#economy #InterestRates #FedReserve #inflation