An acceleration in human-caused global warming could see the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit breached before 2030

Record-high temperatures in recent years have led scientists to ask whether #GlobalWarming is accelerating.
The authors of the new study decided to use two different statistical approaches to test whether they can identify a “statistically significant” acceleration in global warming from the long-term temperature record.
The “noise” from natural drivers of temperature change, such as #ENSO can make it tricky to spot underlying trends. However, Foster tells Carbon Brief that after removing the influence of natural variability, “acceleration is easy to prove statistically – some might even say it becomes obvious”.
Both tests find that

--> warming is accelerating

with more than 98% confidence for each of the five datasets. When the same tests were run on the unadjusted data, they failed to reach even 95% confidence, showing the importance of removing natural variability from the warming signal, according to the study authors.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/pace-of-global-warming-has-nearly-doubled-since-2015-study-says/

#ClimateScience
#ClimateCrisis

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

#LaNina #ENSO #ElNino

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #accelerated #heating #ENSO @paulbeckwith

Paul & Sir Isaac Newton ESP helping us look down surprised mid-air above the creek :/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX3fInf7iaU

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis

Análisis meteorológico detallado sobre el debilitamiento de La Niña, la transición a condiciones neutrales del ENSO y el aumento de probabilidades de El Niño a finales de 2026.

#LaNiña #ENSO #ElNiño #Tutiempo

https://www.tutiempo.net/noticias/transicion-enso-fin-la-nina-posible-regreso-el-nino-2026.html

Häppchen #Klimawissen: Wie beeinflusst der #Klimawandel das Wetterphänomen #ElNiño? 🌍🔥

Wird es durch die Erwärmung extremer und unberechenbarer? Mehr über die weltweiten Auswirkungen von #ENSO und die möglichen Risiken für unsere Zukunft im Beitrag.

https://www.oekologisch-unterwegs.de/klimawandel/948-klimawandel-kippelemente-aenderungen-des-stroemungsphaenomens-el-nino-im-pazifik.html

#Wetter #Extremwetter #LaNiña #Klimaforschung #GlobaleErwärmung #Naturphänomene

Scientists change how El Nino is labeled to keep up with spike in temperature

Increasingly hot waters globally have caused the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this month to alter how it calculates when the weather pattern has flipped into a new cycle. It’s likely to mean that more events will be considered La Nina and fewer qualify as an El Nino for warming tropical waters.

#LaNina #ElNino #ENSO

https://apnews.com/article/el-nino-la-nina-climate-change-warming-e3499ef5e1081604770c4cf5f95910b3