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Six months from N.Z. election, is Luxon fit for Prime Minister?

It is 05 April 2026, and as New Zealand go about their Easter break and the start of the school holidays, National Party M.P.’s will be quietly alarmed with the most recent polls.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has a grand opportunity to turn around the barrage of increasingly negative headlines that are emerging from the computers of journalists long thought to be National supporters. But is Mr Luxon taking the opportunity presented by the energy crisis that the Iran War, which looks to be anything but finished – despite what United States President Donald Trump wants people to believe – has foisted upon an oil dependent western world? On the surface it would appear not. I find this particularly notable when I see on Twitter that Iran is offering nations which have turned their backs on this illegal war, a deal regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

At a time when many nations in the western hemisphere have declared a state of emergency, New Zealand’s response was to launch an advert campaign. New Zealanders though, don’t appear to be buying into it, given the fact that there is now a shortage of electric vehicles in the N.Z. market and some cars are being purchased whilst still on the ship, without yet even being registered here.

It also comes as another Roy Morgan poll shows Labour leading, with a hung Parliament most likely if the election were this week. It also showed another thing that National should consider ominous: the Opportunity Party is holding strong at 4%, with support starting to be attracted from both parts of the spectrum. National might rely on Winston Peters and New Zealand First to put them back in power, but the strong showing from Opportunity suggests that the moderates in both parties and Labour might be tiring of the status quo.

The increasing negativity towards National in the polls may in part be behind the Cabinet reshuffle that Mr Luxon announced on Thursday afternoon. It saw some of the M.P.’s viewed as moderates, or potential threats to National get demoted or moved sideways. One of those was Chris Bishop who holds a number of significant portfolios, and got removed from being Campaign Chair, and Leader of the House, in return for being given Attorney General. Chris Penk, who has served in the Royal New Zealand Navy entered Cabinet and picked up the Defence portfolio from outgoing Judith Collins (retiring at the election), as well as holding on to Veterans Affairs. Penny Simmonds is another one who got promoted into Cabinet, which may be more to do with there being a dearth of South Islanders in the Cabinet. She picks up Tertiary Education, and also the Science Innovation and Technology portfolio.

There are a number of actions that New Zealand could be taking to help mitigate the energy crisis, which we are not. None of them individually will solve the problem, but collectively would add up to a response and potentially useful outcomes that right now, are not being contemplated by Parliament, let alone the Government.

Mine would be to:

The time to act is now. The next crisis might be the one that is our undoing.

But will Mr Luxon and his Government rise to the challenge? That remains to be seen.