The USA picked a fight with Iran and lost
Russia picked a fight with Ukraine, and is losing.
Modern warfare is strong on defence, very hard for the attacker. No 20th century style Blitzkriegs across multiple countries, it's losing thousands of human beings to get a few square miles of no-man's land, or losing half your missile stock and having to pay the victim $300 billion.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/18/moscow-oil-refinery-on-fire-ukraine-drone-stikes








