Non-Fiction Trilogy of sorts - "#TheLimitsToGrowth; #PowerLimitsAndProspectsForHumanSurvival; and #EarthForAllASurvivalGuideForHumanity.

So, my copy of "The Limits To Growth" is a first edition from 1972, which I bought in a used book store in 1980. Whoever owned it before ("Denison") highlighted a bunch of stuff (the old school highlighters that don't fade), and put zig-zag lines around this paragraph: "In any finite system there must be constraints that can act to stop exponential growth. These constraints are negative feedback loops. The negative loops become stronger and stronger as growth approches the ultimate limit, or carrying capacity, of the system's environment. Finally, the negative loops balance or dominate the positive ones, and growth comes to an end. In the world system the negative feedback loops involve such processes as pollution of the environment, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and famine."

Fast forward to 2021, where one of the Limits To Growth authors, #DennisMeadows, describes #RichardHeinberg's "Power - Limits And Prospects for Human Survival" as "a powerful new way of understanding the historic rise and probable fall of our species. It is an impressive, sweeping, and thought-provoking narrative." Heinberg talks about how we got to where we are today (lots of history), but also offers solutions (like #Agroecology and #Degrowth).

Finally, "#EarthForAll - A Survival Guide For Humanity" -- which was a report to the #ClubOfRome, and a 50 year follow-up to Limits To Growth. This book is where I learned about the #GiantLeapScenario that we so need to survive as a species on a viable planet.

Limits To Growth influenced my thinking at a young age. "Power" explains how we went wrong, and "Earth For All" gives me hope for the future.

#Bookstodon #AmReading #History #DeGrowth #PowerStructures #ABetterWorldIsPossible #SolarPunkSunday #Earth4All #GiantLeap

Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisited

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2

#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

#TheLimitsToGrowth–Now Available to Read Online!

Published: June 6th, 2013
By Sarah Parkinson

"The complete text of the original #LimitsToGrowth study is now accessible for free online, thanks to a partnership between the Dartmouth College Library, #DennisMeadows, and the #SustainabilityInstitute.

"The Limits to Growth, originally published in 1972, was a groundbreaking study that modeled the dynamics of our human presence on the planet. The team behind it, led by Dennis Meadows, found that continuing with a '#BusinessAsUsual” #growth model would likely lead to #environmental and #economic collapse within a century. At the time, their discoveries sparked huge controversy among scientists, scholars, and the general public. In the decades since, those discoveries have been supported by patterns of growth, environmental health, and resource use.

"Today, forty years after its release, The Limits to Growth remains an important resource for anyone hoping to understand more about the complex system that is our planet. We are honored and excited to make it freely available online. Each page of the publication has been carefully scanned and optimized for digital viewing, and all the original figures are included. The digital work has been assigned a Creative Commons BY-NC license, so we encourage you to download it and pass it along to your friends!"

https://donellameadows.org/the-limits-to-growth-now-available-to-read-online/

#Degrowth #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Warning

cc: @breadandcircuses

@BlumeEvolution

Danke - Ich nehme bissel #Süßstoff und #Milch, aber nur die mit 1,5 % Fettanteil 😁. Man muss ja nur mal in das 50 Jahre alte #Büchlein von #DennisMeadows und dem #ClubofRome reinschauen, um zu wissen was die #Glocke geschlagen hat. Dann noch ein bisschen #StefanRahmsdorf dazu lesen und man braucht keine dystopischen #Endzeitschocker (#DiefünfteWelle z.B.) mehr, um sich den Tag zu versauen. Naja, auch daran gewöhnt man sich (leider). Alle Fakten sind bekannt. Schönen Tag.