A record flood has hit Western Australia’s Kimberley region as ex-tropical Cyclone Ellie passes through the region.
The Fitzroy River was above 15 metres on Tuesday morning and was projected to reach 15.6 metres on Tuesday night – 1.5 metres higher than the previous record.
#flood #Flooding #Kimberley #Australia #CycloneEllie #ClimateImpacts

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/03/wa-government-declares-emergency-as-record-flood-hits-kimberley

So Less of the runs of the GFS now show Ellie moving back over water however quite a few do have Ellie intensify again and may be close enough to the warm water to reintensify back into a Tropical CycloneWhile Uncommon Tropical Cyclones have been known to form or intensify with proximity to water without having their center over the water this might be another case of the Brown Ocean Effect where onshore rains take heat from the warm soil and the storm feeds off of that as well as get some of the energy directly from the portion sitting over water

92P is back on the radar and the GFS ensemble has hunts of some trajectories where the Low deepened however some of those look like they might occur in latitudes that suggest intensification through a Extratropical Transition though one track has it hitting the northern most tip of Aotearoa (New Zealand)

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The Tropics have gone rather quiet but it appears Ellie which we had written off as a short lived Tropical Cyclone has maintained closed isobars and may move back over water and reintensify back into a Tropical Cyclone

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Invest 98B looks as though it won't have any significant development anytime soon and will cross into the Arabian Sea

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is now a disorganised depression over Central Australia and is unlikely to move back over water suitable for Tropical Cyclogenesis

Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian is still a very intense Tropical Cyclone out at Sea however it appears it will die at sea without significantly impacting land.

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So right now there are 3 Areas to watch when it comes to Tropical Cyclones, Ellie made landfall should be weakening now as it heads inland but still poses wind and flooding risk but as it dies out rainfall will become the bigger issue

Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian looks as if it will die at sea without impacting land however it is a very powerful TC with 100kt (185km/h or 115mph) sustained winds a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone on ATCS, Intense Tropical Cyclone (Meteo France Tropical Cyclone Scale), or Category 3 Major Hurricane (Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

3rd there is Tropical Invest 98B in the Bay of Bengal which the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has at Low liklihood of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the next 24 hours

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So it looks like Tropical Cyclone Ellie has already made landfall between Dally River Mouth and Wadeye as a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone (Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale) and Tropical Storm (Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

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