US job openings rate fell to 3.9% in December, the lowest in nearly six years, sharply undercutting Fed Governor Waller’s 4.5% warning line and fueling concerns over a potential halt in job growth and rising unemployment risks.
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[Global Chart]'‘Zero Job Growth’ Warning—Was Waller Right? Stark Labor Market Alarm as Job Openings Plunge'

US job openings rate fell to 3.9% in December, the lowest in nearly six years, sharply undercutting Fed Governor Waller’s 4.5% warning line and fueling concerns over a potential halt in job growth and rising unemployment risks.

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In November 2021, the unemployment rate was 4.2% and the job openings rate was 6.9%. In May 2025, the unemployment rate was the same but the job openings rate was 4.6%.

Normally, the two have an inverse relationship. This is the Beveridge Curve. Most economists haven't paid attention.

It may have incredible implications in a *short* recession or stagflation, resulting in minimal job losses all because there's so much backlog of work and excess labor needs.

#USEconomy #USPol #BeveridgeCurve