Gary Al-Smith 🤖Four years on, I am just about ready to join the #ArtetaOut crew. Need a manager to take us over the line, and increasingly, I dont see him to be it.
EBL 🤖Every time I post about Arsenal it's:
'Oh EBL is talking about Arsenal again' or 'oh EBL glorifies everything Arteta does', etc.
Let me address this. Let me address it with vigorous intent, intensity, depth, and logic, like I always do.
A passage that supersedes football.
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Please read the passage below with patience, an open-mind, and through the prism of 'all EBL cares about is the truth'.
Here we go:
First, I would like to address this to those who show unwavering belief, passion, and commitment to the work I do on EBL. Without you, I would not be here, so thank you.
Second, I would like to address this to the 'haters'. Not to change your mind, because trying to please the masses is a fools errand - nobody is universally liked. That is not the idea. The idea is to help you see things from my point of view. Maybe you will still disagree at the end, and if you do, no problem, but as long as you give me the time to explain myself and truly listen to what I have to say, then we can at least respect each other.
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Where people get 'triggered' by my content is often in the initial tweet of my threads.
Let's take Nørgaard, for example.
I wrote an entire article about him detailing his strengths and weaknesses. Yet, because there was a positive tone to the initial tweet, people jump to the false paradigm that 'EBL illogically praises everything Arsenal do'.
The key here is that you only see the initial tweet in the thread and don't read the nuance IN the thread.
You did not see me critique Trossard, Zinchenko, Havertz, Nørgaard, and others that Arsenal have signed because all you read was the headline tweet.
But, guess what, most of the analysis on Arsenal is positive. You are not wrong to think that.
But, does it take a rocket scientist to figure out why that is, especially when considering how Arsenal have been so successful since Mikel Arteta took over?
Forget trophies for a second - the club have gone from mid-table mediocrity to being legitimate contenders for the Premier League AND Champions League. When the hell was the last time you could say that about Arsenal?!
And, you know what, my prediction rate and success rate in relation to the overall project and in specific relation to the signings at Arsenal has been nothing short of exceptional.
I can say this because I track my work over time.
But, why do I do this?
Because I am an analyst. It is my job to track, test, and assess what I have said and how it ages over time.
Again, why?!
So I can learn and learn and learn and learn and learn.
So I can seek the truth.
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Now, let's talk about some specifics at Arsenal Football Club:
How many truly *BAD* signings has Arteta made at Arsenal? And don't include guys like Marí, Cedric, or Willian who were brought in to steady the ship of a dreadful squad when Arteta first took over (and were signed for peanuts).
After doing some research, I can point to the below:
Sterling (loan),
Fábio Vieira (€35.00m),
Lokonga (€17.50m),
Nuno Tavares (€8.00m),
Marquinhos (€3.50m).
So that is €64.00m wasted out of €791m spent since December 2019.
That is less than a 10% fail rate, and many of those players being young talents (who were presumably signed by the club near the start of Arteta's tenure).
Even if you disagree that guys like Kiwior, for example, have been a success, the percentage is still in and around 10%, so let's not get pernickety here and lose track of the overriding point of this passage.
Before I get to that overriding point, let's assess those big-name 'failures'.
Sterling:
The one I get bashed on for the most. Listen, guys, peak Raheem was world class. No doubts. And, with his mentality and performance levels at Chelsea, there was no reason he could not keep that level up at Arsenal. However, he did not. I suspect that it was not for footballing reasons - whenever he came onto the pitch, which was not often, he looked unfit and incapable of keeping up with the pace of the game, especially defensively. I did not see a massive deterioration in his attributes, but more so in his stamina. I think there is something 'bigger' going on behind the scenes with him.
Fábio Vieira:
He has unbelievable qualities. Truly, truly unbelievable. Like Bruno Fernandes. However, what he has lacked thus far in his career is a mentality to take games by the scruff of the neck, both with and without the ball (which Bruno has). Neither are physical specimens, but one has an elite mentality and the other has yet to show that yet. If Vieira does not show that personality, he will not succeed at Arsenal - simple as. The talent, though? Not in doubt. Let's see how this one plays out long-term, though.
The rest? They were kids. Potential that did not work out for one reason or another.
So, is that it? Seriously?
THAT is the critiquing of Arsenal transfer business under Arteta then?!
Are we going to sit here and act like failing on less than 10% of your transfers over a 6 year period is some sort of colossal failure? Especially when Arsenal were a complete mess when Arteta took over?!
People bash him for his lack of trophies, but the timeline of Arsenal's project under Arteta goes as follows:
Half of 19/20 + 20/21 - Rebuild,
21/22 - Top 4 fight,
22/23 - Maintain top 4,
23/24 - Challenge for the title,
24/25 - Win the title.
Turns out Arsenal miraculously challenged for the title in 22/23.
Then they got 89 points which wins 72% of Premier League titles in history in 23/24.
Then, in 24/25, the next step was to *WIN* the Premier League title, but the club failed to do that.
WHY?
Well, Arteta did try to sign Vlahovic, Isak, Mudryk, Neto, Raphinha, and Sesko in the build-up to that season. And, within that season, he tried to sign Watkins.
Ultimately, the club gave him nobody, and Arsenal had one of the worst injury-crisis' in Premier League history on top of that.
But they still managed to finish 2nd and get to the Champions League final (where they were objectively the better team than the Champions League winners PSG over 2 legs with Mikel Merino up front). That was the first time the club reached that stage in the Champions League since 2009.
Now, with this summer ahead, and the club finally being in a position to sign the forwards that Arteta has wanted for so long, the expectations remain the same - win the Premier League or the Champions League title. If the club deliver on two forward signings that are good enough, then we should expect to see Arsenal truly compete for both competitions. No excuses.
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But, let's take a step back.
In 2019 I said that Arteta has the potential to be elite. In 2020 I said that he is elite and he will bring Arsenal to the very top. I analysed every game, every signing, every tactical tweak, every press conference, everything.
Why?
Because of the faith I had in the project. Not based on emotion, because I am not an Arsenal fan, but based on logic.
Does that mean that I agreed with every single decision that Arteta ever made? No, no it does not. Tuchel's Chelsea smashed Arsenal at the Emirates one time and I criticised Arteta's tactics. I also criticised the offensive dynamics on other occasions, for example.
But, ultimately, I can count on one hand the amount of times where I disagreed with Arteta.
The fans booed Arsenal off the pitch at The Emirates, #ArtetaOut was often trending, his signings were LAUGHED at and came back to prove everyone wrong time and time again, and the most famous pundits in the UK said that Arteta will never do better than challenging for 4th so he might as well resign.
The process has always been something that I have had complete faith in:
The tactical level - elite.
The signings relative to the short and long-term demands of the squad - elite.
The way the squad was built and evolved - elite.
The way the culture was set throughout the club - elite.
The way that change in culture changed into the fans turning from doubters into believers - elite.
Ultimately, Arsenal were poor technically, weak physically, and had a toxic and aging group of players when Arteta entered the football club.
Now they are on the cusp of greatness. A complete shift in reality with one man at the helm from the start until now.
If Arteta gets something wrong every now and then, fine, but focus on the BIGGER PICTURE.
You can also apply that same logic to my analysis. Was I wrong about Sterling? Did I think Fábio Vieira would have a bigger impact? Sure, guys, you can say that.
But I stop, think, reflect, and ANALYSE to learn and develop as an individual because I am obsessed with that. Totally obsessed.
If you think for a single second that I don't know anything about football, or that I am blindly supporting Arteta, or that I do 'this' for clicks, or whatever it is that you want to believe about EBL, then all the best to you, but you have completely missed the point of the reason why I post on this application.
I have one overriding goal, and I have since day one - to pursue the truth. It is all I care for. And, for all of the praise and criticism I get on this platform, I am numb to it.
Why?
Because I hold myself to the highest possible standards. I am more accountable of my work than my biggest hater could even dream to be.
So, to close, to those of you who point to the few times over the last DECADE where I have been wrong, please realise that I will be wrong probably even more than that over the next decade, so your 'gotcha' receipts will amount to more.
But, remember, when I am wrong, I already know about it before you, I have already learnt from it, and I am already better for it. You are stuck in this past and 'trolling' on social media whilst I have already developed and moved forward.
I get why you hold onto it - it is not often that I am wrong even though I post public analysis every day. Holding onto novelties make senses.
But, remember: I dare to do in public. And I will continue to, no matter what.
Because, in my head, if Pep Guardiola, Sir Alex Ferguson, Jürgen Klopp or whoever the hell you want to use as an example can be wrong on countless occasions throughout their football career and be legendary figures, then I can be wrong too.
And, like Arteta and Arsenal, my hit rate is a lot closer to 90% than it is 10%, and that is why I am where I'm at on this platform, in my career, and in my life.
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If you made it this far, thank you.
It is not often that I address the nonsense that often goes on in the background of my account, but today I have.
In future, this post will be nice to link to people when they inevitably criticise my work.
And, if they get this far, hopefully they can see where I'm coming from.
We can argue about semantics, but the bigger picture is all I care for, and it is all I ever will care for.
Focus on the 90% and you win. Focus on the 10% and you lose.
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To finish:
When my content goes online I feel like it really matters, and that it doesn't really matters.
It really matters for the people who are sparked by it.
And it really doesn't matter for the people who are offended by it.
For the people who are sparked by it, I get energy that I cannot describe to you. These guys are doers. The fact that I can spark something in them to potentially follow their dreams is wild.
Alternatively, for those of you who are offended by it, you spend your time sitting around and trolling when the rest of us are inspired and leading for themselves and for the people around them by action.
Ultimately, I am here to follow my dreams and to help other people follow their dreams and inspire people who are dreamers.
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Peace and love,
EBL.
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