Uncertain times ahead for #Somalia
As promised by president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud when he was elected 4 years ago, Somalia’s constitution has been finalized — nearly 14 years after a provisory text came into force.
To get there, he has had to prioritize state-building and this end goal over fighting the Shabaab and over a precarious status quo in relations between the federal level and Somali states.
- It is very likely that after a no less than miraculous advance in the first months of #Somalia ’s “total war” against #AlShabaab, the continued degradation of the security situation in the country since 2023 has been the main factor preventing her from making the list.
- #Turkey now operates the port and airport of Mogadishu, which also hosts her largest military base abroad. She has been a major ally against #AlShabaab, including providing TB2 drones and attack helicopters, training her police and military (including the elite Gorgor). She holds banking, mining, #oil, #gas concessions.
#Turkey has crossed a red line in #Somalia. With F-16s deployed to #Mogadishu & #Turkish troops fighting #AlShabaab, #Ankara has shifted from trainer to combatant—reshaping SO’s war & #HornOfAfrica #Geopolitics. #Somaliland
https://saxafimedia.com/turkey-somalia-kinetic-f16-strategic-shift/
Turkey has escalated its military role in Somalia, deploying F-16s and engaging directly in combat against al-Shabaab. This analysis explores the military, political, and geopolitical consequences of Ankara’s new kinetic posture
- When #Ethiopia #Somalia relations normalized, Southwest cooperated again with Mogadishu. Trust remains minimal.
- The onus on state-building means voter registration and a new income tax added fuel to the fire.
- The prospect of general OPOV elections in 2026 - including at the local, regional and federal levels makes the situation all the more volatile.
The capital of Southwest is encircled by #AlShabaab. Local infighting as well as Southwest-Federal tensions naturally play in their hands
To #Trump, #Somalia is a military theatre (first), an aid and immigration concern (second).
- 48 to 51 airstrikes and 1 ground operation under the entire Biden administration (against #IslamicState and #AlShabaab)
- have risen to 124 airstrikes and 1 ground operation in 2025 alone
- and at least 25 strikes in the sole month of January 2026 !
It certainly fits within the current Somali-Saudi rapprochement, but as for "counter-radicalization", I have my doubts.
Here I'm appealing to wiser people than me (!), as I am not an Islamic scholar, but it would seem to clash with certain local norms, #Sufi and also #Shafi'i. There might be eery overlaps with #AlShabaab propaganda.
JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia – The Minister of Endowments and Religious Affairs of the Federal Republic of Somalia, H.E. Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Ali, has formally executed a bilateral cooperation agreement wi…
Mathieu Gotteland
Headlines Africa
Saxafi Media