on the topic of Major Hurricane Milton - Typhie

[Image 1] "so dry air entrainment looks less likely, but wind shear will be a player, windfield is likely to increase while storm max wind decreases, rain and storm surge is likely to be the larger threat, and tors [tornadoes] can be expect due to high shear environment, there might be rapid expansion of windfield and maybe wind increase on the backside as it is close to a frontal system and likely will start extratropical transition from a tropical cyclone to extratropical cyclone [frontal low]" - Typhie

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So there are 3 systems worth watching at this time, 1 in the South Pacific and 2 in the South Indian Ocean

First up Tropical Cyclone Freddy which is currently a Category Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale, or Category 1 Hurricane on the SSHWS and looks like it will reach Category 4 on the ATCS which is Category 2-3 on the SSHWS

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is currently a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone which is equivalent to Tropical Storm on the SSHWS however it too looks like it will develop into a significant Tropical Cyclone and potentially impact North Island of Aotearoa (New Zealand)

Currently 94S is still a Tropical Low or Tropical Depression the GFS Ensemble shows it has some potential to also become a Significant Tropical Cyclone, The Australian Bureau of Meteorology only shows it getting to Category 2 but this is likely because it is right at the edge of their Area of Responsibility when it crosses it will be within Meteo France Area of Responsibility

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So we haven't done a few recently due to some life stuff going on draining all the spoons so here

Cheneso is just a remnant making extratropical transition, unlikely to affect coastlines that are populated any time soon

In the Bay of Bengal we have 90B which is likely to have a landfall within the next 3 days though doesn't appear that it will be very deep upon landfall

Invest 95S is yet another swirly situation on the GFS Ensemble there is quite a bit of variation in track for the runs, we see a lot get bellow 1000hPa and only show a few out pass 72hrs showing sub 990hPa pressure like 94S these two systems definitely should be watched carefully because so much can change in a few days

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So there is an Invest, Invest 90L in the North Atlantic it doesn't have a high probability of developing in the next 42 hours however if it does develop it would most likely remain a Subtropical Cyclone as generally outside the respective basins Tropical Cyclone Season storms that form tend to be Subtropical, it is also an extratropical low at this moment so any cyclone that forms would have hybrid characteristics

90S and 96S are very close to each other and the GFS Ensemble have them doing pretty similar stuff both have the chance of becoming significant Tropical Cyclones over the week, with both getting into the sub 970hPa range and many tracks showing a landfall in Madagascar before heading over the Mozambique channel where the ensemble tracks suggest reintensification, though those are over 72hrs out so should be taken with a grain of salt but these system are definetly ones to keep an eye on

91P is currently within the Coral Sea but is likely to head East potentially over some islands right now though the GFS ensemble show very little spread so it seems pretty likely the system will travel that path this system at this time looks as though it might get down to the 980-990 hPa range before weakening so probably looking at a Tropical Cyclone on the weaker side (Category 1- 2 on the Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale)

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Invest 90S looks as though it might be a significant Tropical Cyclone according to the GFS Ensemble while not every track has the same depth of the low a lot have it getting bellow 990hPa and a couple have it getting bellow 950hPa which is the territory of Mean Sea Level Pressure you find in storms of Category 4 (Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) though the winds really depend on the pressure surrounding the system too, high MSLP surrounding a Tropical Cyclone the higher the winds

Invest 96S on the other hand doesn't look like it will have significant development anytime soon but worth watching over the next few days as new information could change how the models play out and may point to more development than is currently showing

Invest 91P is another system which by what the GFS Ensemble is showing as the potential to become a significant Tropical Cyclone at the moment it is unlikely to cross into the Australian Basin instead head East, Quite a few tracks have it reaching sub 990 and 980 hPa so not as deep as what 90S is showing in the models but still pressures you might see in a Hurricane/Typhoon forced storm (so Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the local scale which is the Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale)

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So a few Invests have dropped off the list of areas of interest, and we have a new one Invest 96S which looking at the GFS Ensemble may become a intense Tropical Cyclone, and there are quite a few islands and Madagascar that is within the cone of possible tracks on the GFS for this system

97W is still hanging around, and the GFS has a lot of variation between each ensemble run, however unlike earlier GFS Ensembles it appears it won't get as deep as the previous showed, however proximity to the Philippines means it is a concern and storms in this region tend to intensify very quickly given the chance

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We have 3 areas of interest globally right now with 07P aka Subtropical Depression Hale which looking at the GFS ensemble looks like it will head in a southward direction and potentially make landfall on the North Island of Aotearoa (New Zealand)

97W is in the North West Pacific near the Philippine, there are a few tracks on the GFS Ensemble showing it might get down to 990-1000hPa which from what I have seen in the past usually corelates with winds of Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression or rarely very low end Typhoon

Invest 95P has a high degree of spread in the models but doesn't appear at this stage that it will get anymore intense with exception of some southward tracks where the Deepening of the Low could suggest Extratropical transisition

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So Less of the runs of the GFS now show Ellie moving back over water however quite a few do have Ellie intensify again and may be close enough to the warm water to reintensify back into a Tropical CycloneWhile Uncommon Tropical Cyclones have been known to form or intensify with proximity to water without having their center over the water this might be another case of the Brown Ocean Effect where onshore rains take heat from the warm soil and the storm feeds off of that as well as get some of the energy directly from the portion sitting over water

92P is back on the radar and the GFS ensemble has hunts of some trajectories where the Low deepened however some of those look like they might occur in latitudes that suggest intensification through a Extratropical Transition though one track has it hitting the northern most tip of Aotearoa (New Zealand)

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The Tropics have gone rather quiet but it appears Ellie which we had written off as a short lived Tropical Cyclone has maintained closed isobars and may move back over water and reintensify back into a Tropical Cyclone

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So things may start getting quiet with Invest 98B likely to remain fairly disorganised as it crosses into the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Darian is quite far from land and looks as though it will die at sea but for the time being remains a fairly powerful Tropical Cyclone

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