The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 95% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running 5% ⬆️ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $81. #akleg
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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 13.47% v PFC 6.71%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.28% v PFC 9.56%
* 1-yr: S&P 24.44% v PFC 14.40%
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $14 (+$653mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $8 (avg annual +$303mil)
#akleg
𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, we update the 10-year outlook for the most recent $$oil futures prices and other updated information (now using the #akleg enrolled budget for spending levels). Currently, the state is running an average annual 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩 over the next 10-year period of $2.02 billion (30% of the UGF budget, ~4.7% of Alaska AGI, ~3.0% of Alaska Private Sector GDP).
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The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: https://bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg
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Some readers will know that in addition to these weekly columns, we also regularly produce a series of daily charts focused on various aspects of Alaska oil, gas, and fiscal issues. We call one set of those charts, which we publish on Friday afternoons, the...… Read More
AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets