Andy RivkinMar 11
OK, and ending this particular flurry of activity (I think), here's our Research Note of the AAS giving some more details about our work on #2024YR4. This publication is word-limited and figure-limited, but hopefully will hold folks until we publish a fuller paper in coming weeks! 🔭🧪

JWST Observations Rule Out 203...
JWST Observations Rule Out 2032 Lunar Impact for Asteroid 2024 YR4

JWST Observations Rule Out 2032 Lunar Impact for Asteroid 2024 YR4, Rivkin, A. S., de Wit, J., Micheli, M., Farnocchia, D., Burdanov, A. Y., Holler, B., Tholen, D. J., Devogele, M., Graninger, D., Hammel, H. B., Milam, S. N., Mueller, T., Narrett, I. S., Pravec, P., Thomas, C. A.

RevesdespaceMar 9
☄️La probabilité d’un impact de l’astéroïde #2024YR4 avec la Lune est désormais nulle.
Détails : https://reves-d-espace.com/la-probabilite-impact-de-asteroide-2024-yr4-avec-la-lune-est-desormais-nulle
📷 NASA, ESA, CSA, A. Rivkin (JHUAPL) et J. de Wit (MIT), position et incertitudes associées pour l'astéroïde 2024 YR4 le 26 février 2026 et de la Lune (cercle rouge).
Andy RivkinMar 6
I am hoping your thirst for #2024YR4 is not yet slaked! Here’s the #JWST blog’s take on things, plus we look forward to a more technical note coming our next week!

How NASA’s Webb Helped Rule Ou...
How NASA’s Webb Helped Rule Out Asteroid’s Chance of 2032 Lunar Impact

Editor’s Note: This post highlights data from Webb science in progress, which has not yet been through the peer-review process. These results were reported as

NASA Science
Show threadDaniel FischerMar 6
So there is an upcoming novel about #asteroid #2024YR4 which has just sold its movie rights: https://gizmodo.com/the-author-behind-the-social-network-has-an-asteroid-movie-coming-out-2000730674 - wonder what will happen when the producers of #TheLastOrbit eventually figure out that it's not only no risk for Earth anymore (as has been known for a year now, of course) but also not for the Moon. Talk about bad timing ... ;-)
The Author Behind 'The Social Network' Has an Asteroid Movie Coming Out

'The Last Orbit,' written by Ben Mezrich, will hit the screen directed by 'Fantastic Four' helmer Matt Shakman.

Gizmodo
Andy RivkinMar 6
Thanks to the Bard of Planetary Defense (@[email protected]) for a quick summary of yesterday's #2024YR4 news and the role our #JWST data played in the tale.

Notorious asteroid 2024 YR4 wo...
Notorious asteroid 2024 YR4 won't crash into the moon after all

Earthlings aren't the only ones safe from a city-wrecking-size asteroid. Future lunar inhabitants won't have to worry about a strike in 2032 either

Scientific American
Show threadAstro Hawk (Ian Kluft) ✅🚀🛰️Mar 5
"Phew! NASA Rules Out Asteroid Smashup on the Moon in 2032" by @universetoday / @alanboyle - Astronomical observations of #asteroid #2024YR4, including from #NASA #WebbSpaceTelescope🔭 #JWST, refined its orbit estimate to rule out impact with the #Moon on its Dec 22, 2032 flyby. Possibility of Earth impact on that pass was already ruled out in April 2025. The 60m diameter rock would be a serious threat. https://www.universetoday.com/articles/phew-nasa-rules-out-asteroid-smashup-on-the-moon-in-2032 #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space
Phew! NASA Rules Out Asteroid Smashup on the Moon in 2032

Here’s one less thing to worry about — or to look forward to: NASA has ruled out any chance that an asteroid called 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in 2032.

Universe Today
Planetarium BochumMar 5
Erst jetzt gefundene alte Bilder und ganz neue Aufnahmen von Webb haben unabhängig voneinander die Bahn des Asteroiden #2024YR4 erheblich genauer gemacht - und ein Impakt auf dem Mond im Jahr 2032, der zuvor noch eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 4% hatte, ist nun definitiv ausgeschlossen: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00449 bzw. https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2026/03/05/new-nasa-asteroid-observations-eliminate-chance-of-2032-lunar-impact/ und https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Asteroid_2024_YR4_will_not_impact_the_Moon
Show threadDaniel FischerMar 5
New observations of the #NearEarthAsteroid #2024YR4 with the #Webb Telescope are now also, like the recently discovered precovery positions, firmly excluding a crash into the Moon: https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2026/03/05/new-nasa-asteroid-observations-eliminate-chance-of-2032-lunar-impact/ - all the studies (and speculations) about consequences for Earth of such a lunar impact are now merely an exercise. But one day ... ;-)
Show threadMichael BuschMar 5

JWST confirms that #2024YR4 will miss the Moon in 2032.

And apparently also confirming that the potential precovery observation was indeed in the right spot.

https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2026/03/05/new-nasa-asteroid-observations-eliminate-chance-of-2032-lunar-impact/

2024 YR4 will not come so close to Earth and Moon again until at least the mid-2050s.

But its orbit will still have a very low minimum distance from Earth's.

For a longer-term trajectory prediction; wait until after the 2032 flyby.

New NASA Asteroid Observations Eliminate Chance of 2032 Lunar Impact

Using data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope observations collected on Feb. 18 and 26, experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the

NASA Science
TxiflitiMar 5

Azken jaurtiketak:

🇺🇸 #Falcon9 suziri baten #Starlink10-40 misioa, #B1080-25 propultsatzailea erabiliz, 29 sateliterekin.

🇯🇵 #Kairos suziriaren hirugarren jaurtiketa ere, porrot egin du.

#2024YR4 asteroideak ez du Ilargiaren kontra talka egingo 2032an.

#Espazioa